Thursday, December 13, 2007

Thursday Picks

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans +1
Durden: Mike Shanahan may have his criticisms, but he not only groomed Gary Kubiak as his protégé, he then lobbied for him to get a head coaching job. Moreover, he let Kubiak take Mike’s own son to Houston for his coaching staff and most importantly, has yet to videotape Kubiak doing anything without his permission. Just further proof that it is possible to be a coach in the NFL, without being a colossal jerk.
Pick:
Broncos -1

Mazzone:
I'm off to Vegas, so let's try my luck with the Texans, if that works out it should be a nice weekend. I'll mail in the rest of my picks in time for the Sat/Sun games, but no commentary from me this week.
Pick: Texans +1

Saturday, December 8, 2007

Week 14 Picks

Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5
Mazzone:
Last week’s game against the Colts wasn’t as close as the score indicates, and though they’re a really good football team, the Jags still have a little ways to go before being considered with the best. It’s difficult to take the Panthers, but I think 10.5 is tough with a trip to Pittsburgh looming for Jax next week.
Pick: Panthers +10.5

Durden:
Before beating up the hapless 49ers last week, the Panthers had ripped off 5 straight losses. I expect them to revert back to form and lose not only on Sunday, but for the remainder of the season. Jacksonville should bounce back big after last week’s loss to Indy, and getting back Marcus Stroud certainly won’t hurt.
Pick: Jaguars -10.5


Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions +10.5
Mazzone: A week ago, I gave the Lions one last chance, but they look like a team that’s done and now they’re without Roy Williams. Dallas is rolling and it seems like only they can keep themselves from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Pick: Cowboys -10.5

Durden: While Detroit is well on its way to a 6 or 7 win season, they did a hell of a job of tricking a lot of us into thinking that they may have been for real. Still, it means Kitna will be wrong about his team winning 10 games this year. Unfortunately for him, that may be nothing compared to the trouble that awaits him this Sunday, as a result of him opening his big mouth.
Pick: Cowboys -10.5


Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills -7
Mazzone:
Another easy win for the Dolphins. I just hope they don’t fall into the trap of looking two weeks ahead to the highly anticipated matchup with the Patriots.
Pick: Dolphins +7

Durden: Before last week’s game, Dolphins DT Vonnie Holliday shouted to Jets LB David Bowens, "Today's gonna be our day!" To which Bowens responded, "I bet you felt like that about 11 other teams" Fortunately for Miami, they’re expecting snow in Buffalo on Sunday. Bad weather has already helped slow down Miami’s opponent in games this year, and Buffalo is certainly worse than the Giants or Steelers.
Pick: Dolphins +7


New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -3
Mazzone:
Donovan McNabb is BACK! That should lead to quite a bit of my brother’s favorite play in football - Donovan McNabb getting sacked. It’s going to be sad when he’s playing elsewhere next year. Since Kevin Kolb is white, it’s going to take longer for people to turn on him.
Pick: Giants +3

Durden: This game might be the toughest pick of the week. Their first game this season isn’t much help, as the Eagles will have William Thomas, Brian Dawkins and Brian Westbrook this time around, while the Giants will likely be starting Reuben Droughns. Of course, that may not matter as it’s impossible to know which Eagle team will show up this season, but the Giants just haven’t been the same since their loss against the Cowboys. I’ll take the Eagles at home, splitting the season series against the Giants.
Pick: Eagles -3


Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers -10.5
Mazzone:
It was actually smart of Favre to leave the Cowboys game early with an injury. Now, if they meet again in the playoffs the team will still have hope. “We played them pretty close without Brett!” Whereas if he had stayed in and continued to play like he was, they would have been blown out and morale would have been low heading into a playoff rematch. That’s why he’s one of the greatest. Raiders have won 2 in a row, they’re due to play like the Raiders again.
Pick: Packers -10.5

Durden:
The half point was just what I needed to pick the Raiders and against the Packers, which is always my preference. Plus, with Aaron Rodgers recently getting hurt, Green Bay is down to their 3rd stringer if Favre really is banged up and gets injured again. Would it kill him to throw back some painkillers?
Pick: Raiders +10.5



Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots -11
Mazzone:
This has all the makings of one of those games where everyone finally starts to doubt the dominant team and they revert back to the machine they were earlier in the year. But at the same time, it’s so easy to hate the Patriots and drum up reasons why they could/should lose. Also, I mentioned a few weeks ago in this column how I thought the Steelers matched up alright and had a shot against the juggernaut. The deciding factor is…how can you possibly go against an Anthony Scott guarantee?!
Pick: Steelers +11

Durden:
After close games against the Eagles and Ravens, I think it’s fair to start asking the question. Did the Patriots not have tape on Baltimore and Philly?? However, what they lack in videotape on their opponents, they clearly make up for in help from the officiating. Look for New England to “bounce back” and stick it to Pittsburgh.
Pick: Patriots -11


San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans -1
Mazzone:
This is one of the few games I’m really looking forward to watching this week. Haynesworth is back and winning football games for the Titans while Vince Young’s almost looked like a real QB the past few weeks.

At the same time LDT is coming off a huge game and the Chargers are on a roll with the defense flying all over the field. In the end, I’m going with the Titans for a couple reasons: 1) they’re home 2) Philip Rivers, even in his good statistical games, hasn’t looked that impressive and I always feel like he’s going to cost them the game against good defenses.
Pick: Titans -1

Durden:
RIP “Albert Haynesworth just wins football games”
Pick: Chargers +1


St. Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals -6.5
Mazzone: I don’t care how bad the Bengals have been, or that the Rams are on a bit of a roll, there is absolutely no way I’m betting on Brock Berlin.
Pick: Bengals -6.5

Durden:
Quick, name a DB or two on the Rams. If you couldn’t come up with anything, then I won’t bother asking you to name ones that are actually healthy. Anyways, those are the guys covering Houshmazilli and the Chad this week. I don’t see how the Rams can keep this one close, and that’s before taking into account that the Rams will be without both Marc Bulger and Gus Frerotte. Brock Berlin, enjoy your first career NFL start.
Pick: Bengals -6.5


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans +3
Mazzone: Gotta continue to give credit to Gruden with this Bucs team. I thought they were going to be pretty awful and then when some key injuries set in I really thought it was going to go downhill. But they’ve beaten everyone they’re supposed to beat (4 losses to – Indy, Seattle, Jax, Detroit when they were decent). There isn’t a team the Bucs shouldn’t beat left on their schedule (@Hou, Atl, @SF, Car) but if they do that, they’ll finish 12-4 with 8 consecutive wins, and I can’t see that happening. I think Houston at home has the best chance of any of the remaining teams to knock off the Bucs.
Pick: Texans +3

Durden: While Sage Rosenfels proved to be serviceable earlier this year, he did so behind an offensive line that was fully intact. This time around, it’s down to at least one third-stringer and the Bucs come into this one on a roll. The Saints gave away the game last week, but I think they’ll take care of this one on their own.
Pick: Buccaneers -3


Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks -7
Mazzone:
The Cards are running out of weapons and the Seahawks are playing like we thought they would earlier in the year. Regardless of the outcome of this one, with NO, ATL, and STL left on Arizona’s schedule, they’ll likely be in the playoff hunt ‘til the end in the woeful NFC.
Pick: Seahawks -7

Durden: I have to admit, I’m incredibly wary of picking Seattle in a game which could seem them all but clinch the division, on their own. However, it does appear that they’ve been taking care of business on their field this season, while the Cards continue to lose guys on both sides of the ball to injury.
Pick: Seahawks -7


Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers +8.5
Mazzone:
There’s a lot of talk about Tim Tebow potentially getting snubbed from the Heisman (which he undoubtedly deserves, as much as I like McFadden) because he’s a sophomore. It’ll be a shame if it happens, but certainly not the first time. Adrian Peterson should have won it as a FRESHMAN in ’04. He’s been that much better than everyone else his whole life, no one should be surprised by his NFL success, which will continue against the ‘Niners. In other news, Tarvaris Jackson might not be half bad, to be continued…
Pick: Vikings -8.5

Durden: The 49ers go into games with Frank Gore as their only hope to stay in games. The Vikings’ top rated run defense should remove that hope easily, allowing their suddenly hot offense to take care of the rest.
Pick: Vikings -8.5


Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets +3.5

Mazzone: I’m really pumped for everything about the return of American Gladiators this January. To the point where I don’t think I’d mind in the least if the commercials for it were played more than Frank TV promos and “this is our country” combined.
Pick: Browns -3.5

Durden:

This is an all-new kind of trap game. It’s the “our minds won’t be on the Browns because the beating of a lifetime awaits us next week” game.
Pick: Browns -3.5


Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos -7
Mazzone:
I haven’t been able to figure out Denver all season. Coming in, I thought they were rated too highly by the experts, but I also didn’t think they were as terrible as they looked their first 5 games. KC on the other hand is still bad, but slightly better than I thought they’d be as I had them winning about 3 games or so for the whole season (they’re at 4 with some winnable games left). They’re getting something out of this Kolby Smith character, Tony Gonzalez is still really good and Dwayne Bowe’s legit. I think they’ll at least keep it close enough to make it worth taking the points.
Pick: Chiefs +7

Durden:
If Denver wins, it’ll be their first win in three weeks. If Kansas City wins, it’ll be Brodie Croyle’s first win in…ever.
Pick: Broncos -7


Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens +9.5
Mazzone:
The Ravens followed the Eagles blueprint for almost beating the Patriots to a T, right down to finding a way to give the game away in the fourth quarter. Devastating loss, and it will be interesting to see if they have anything left to give for this one. I’m guessing no, and I can’t really blame them.
Pick: Colts -9.5

Durden: While I really feel the officiating cost the Ravens all game, they also failed to win the game on their own. It’s easy as a fan to complain about that and be miserable over it, but it’s difficult watching your team do the same during and after the game. There’s really no way to predict how the Ravens will come out for this game, but after last weeks’ performance, I gotta keep the faith.
Pick: Ravens +9.5


New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons +4
Mazzone:
Something tells me this wasn’t what the NFL had in mind when they set up a rematch of last season’s Katrina game. Michael Vick is in jail, Deuce McAllister is hurt, Reggie Bush is likely out “with a knee, a shin and a rib”, but hey, I’ve always wanted to root for Chris Redman in prime time.
Pick: Falcons +4

Durden:
Somewhere, Inmate #85067 wants to know: Who let the dogs out?!?!?
Pick: Saints -4

Thursday, December 6, 2007

NFL Thursday

Chicago Bears @ Washington Redskins -3
Mazzone:
At least this Thursday, it's a game no one really cares to see anyway.

I thought it was a nice gesture on Gibbs' part to honor Sean Taylor by inventing a new way to get an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, but that probably wasn't the best time for it. Gibbs' alzheimers aside, I'm still picking the Redskins this week. I don't really have a good reason other than I don't think much of either of these two teams, so let's go with the home team.
Pick: 'Skins -3

Durden: Sometimes, tragic events seem to inspire a team, but the Redskins don’t appear to be one of those teams who will be able to use the situation as a positive impetus for their season. The Washington Redskins appear to have been a disjointed organization since Daniel Synder bought them, and never was that more evident than last week, when Joe Gibbs was the last man in the country to know about the “10 man tribute.” It hasn’t been pretty, but the Bears have been in games all season, and they seem to be figuring out things on offense with Grossman and Peterson. I expect the Redskins’ season to continue its downward spiral and their losing streak to reach 5 games.
Pick: Bears +3

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Breakdown of the Mets/Nats Trade

If you’re a Mets fan, you probably fall into one of two classes right now.

1) The trade is an abomination (Kazmir/Zambrano part II) and the organization is clueless.

2) The trade might not, kinda sorta, be all that terrible, depending on how you look at it and let’s wait until Minaya is done with all moves to judge him.

One thing's for sure, I haven’t heard a single person outside of the Mets organization truly lauding the trade from the Mets' perspective, and that should speak volumes right there.

Before giving my personal final assessment I’m going to play both sides of the coin and first spin it as a positive, then look at the negatives.

The Pros:

Starting with Church–
All things considered, Ryan Church should be comparable, if not better, offensively and certainly an upgrade defensively over Lastings Milledge… for next season at least. Church was 35th in the NL in OPS and SLG. Of the Mets regulars who had enough plate appearances to qualify, that’s good enough to place Church behind only Carlos Beltran and David Wright, despite playing in RFK, a worse hitters park than Shea and with far worse talent around him in the batting order.

Also, while Church had an unfortunate incident regarding religious beliefs, Milledge has had quite a few more incidents and personality conflicts with his teammates/management while attempting to grow up in the New York City spotlight. So in that regard, I think clubhouse/chemistry wise Church and Schneider will probably turn out to be an upgrade over L-Millz.

As for Brian Schneider -
Aside from expecting a decline as he ages, it’s tough to argue against the defensive abilities of Schneider. Even if he declines, he’s a significant upgrade over anything the Mets have had in recent history. Over the past four seasons here are Schneider’s caught stealing percentages and where he ranks in all of baseball:
2007 - 31.2% caught stealing/7th in MLB
2006 - 30.2%/12th
2005 - 40.0%/5th
2004 – 50%/ 1st

He also hasn’t had a fielding percentage worse than 99.2% since his rookie season. So, in theory, the improved defense and ability to throw runners out should help the pitching staff.

As far as his hitting goes, it’s certainly not pretty, but over the past three seasons, his OPS and SLG are significantly better against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Over the same period of time, Ramon Castro has had a propensity to mash left-handed pitching, so it might not be that terrible of a one-two punch from the 8 spot in the lineup. Furthermore, Schneider’s RBI and HR per at bat numbers are better than those of Paul Lo Duca over the past three seasons. Besides, it’s not like huge offensive production out of the 8 spot/catcher position is a necessity in order to be successful.

So, to close out the positive spin in the most drastic of ways:
In Milledge, the Mets gave up a young player with potential, but also an unproven prospect with character issues. They lost a player with questionable defensive ability, who’s struggled mightily to hit right-handed pitching, or anything not going fast and straight, to be honest. His trade value had seemingly plummeted because other teams noticed these flaws before the Mets did.

In return, they received a significant defensive upgrade at catcher (younger than their previous starter), and an upgrade both defensively and offensively in the OF for the current season.

Prospects are suspects until proven otherwise (just ask the Alex’s – Escobar and Ochoa to name a couple), and if the goal is to win now, to win this season, then this trade clearly is a good move, unless…

You Think The Glass Is Half Empty:
As bad as Milledge currently is against right-handed pitching, Church is even worse against left-handed pitching. It’s to the point where you really can’t even play him.

Last season, he batted .229 with .339 SLG and .655 OPS, compared to his numbers against righties of .287/.506/.866. The big difference between the two is that Milledge is 22, with the potential to improve drastically. At age 29, barring some unforeseen breakout season, we’re probably looking at marginal improvements for Church, at best.

Milledge may have lacked maturity and focus while struggling defensively, but at the age of 22 it should have been expected that he wouldn’t be completely polished when they threw him into the fire. Last I checked, Jose Reyes and countless others had their fair share of growing pains on the way to stardom. Is Church really going to give you THAT much more than Milledge this year? How bout for the next 5 years?

Then there’s Brian Schneider. He’s a really nice guy, like David Eckstein, but like Eckstein, he isn’t much of a ballplayer.

Saying he can’t hit is a gross understatement. He’s practically an automatic out coming off a season where he hit (cringe) .235 with an OPS of .662 and a SLG of .377. Sure, his defensive numbers were spectacular… in ’04 and ’05. The past two seasons, while still solid, he’s dropped off a bit.

Johnny Estrada on the other hand brings a much better bat to the table, and his throwing numbers weren’t terrible in ‘05/’06 (between 29-31%). In 2007, Estrada was terrible throwing guys out, but if you look at his career numbers it seems to be a mirage and the offseason surgery to remove a bone spur in his throwing elbow should get him back to where he was. Is Estrada a bit more of a risk defensively? Absolutely. Is he a phenomenal all around catcher? Of course not, but he’s probably a comparable stop gap, and did I mention the Mets acquired him for virtually nothing (Guillermo Mota)?

Lastly, let’s talk about the myth that Schneider is great at handling pitchers and calling a game. Not only have we heard from a Washington Nationals blogger on the topic, but let’s look at his CERA (Catcher's earned-run average. Earned-run average of club's pitchers with a particular catcher behind the plate).

In ’04 and ’05 he had some success with CERA’s of 3.83 and 3.88 but again, in his past two seasons we see a drastic drop off. In 2006, he was second to last among qualified catchers with a CERA of 5.28 and in 2007 he was 4th worst with a CERA of 4.79. Naturally, there are a lot of other factors that go into handling a pitching staff and their performance (like talent for example), so I’m not going to kill him on those numbers, but to say Schneider is significantly better than the next guy isn’t really fair either. By comparison, here are Estrada and Lo Duca’s CERA’s over the past four seasons .
Estrada 04-07: 3.77, 3.92, 4.43, 4.45
Lo Duca 04-07: 3.83, 3.79, 4.31, 4.12

So, to close the case for the glass half empty folks:
The Mets gave up one of their most hyped prospects who could have filled a need position for the next several seasons (or at least been traded for something better at some point). Milledge’s quick bat and pure athleticism seemed to have him primed to develop into a premier player – one that would fit perfectly in the lineup with the other young Mets’ studs and provide a great foundation for years to come.

Even if his value had declined, it couldn’t have possibly declined to the point where the return is an aging defensive catcher who can’t hit for anything and a 29 year-old outfielder that you essentially have to platoon because - against lefties - he too is an automatic out. If we ever saw Church-Schneider-Pitcher against a lefty, we may as well concede the inning and save the energy of running in and out of the dugout, as that trio would translate into Rey Ordonez batting three consecutive times. Ok, maybe that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but you get the point.

Did I forget to touch on the fact that the Mets will have to face Milledge 18 times a year for the next 5-10 years?

Final Assessment:
My biggest problem isn’t necessarily the value of the pieces being exchanged in this particular trade, but the apparent thought process behind it (or lack thereof) and as Keith Law said in a recent chat “the mismanagement of assets” by the Mets.

Clearly the Mets’ biggest need is pitching, so the question is why do you make this move before you sort out the rotation and the bullpen? If they fail to land a front line starter, and/or improve the bullpen are they really serious contenders for a World Series title? Probably not, especially if Johan Santana heads to the Red Sox, or the Phillies and Braves improve.

So, why not give Milledge a full season to see what he’s capable of – especially if his trade value had dropped off THAT much (which I find hard to believe considering he’s only 22, showed signs of improvement, and his value was sky high just 12-18 months ago). It would make more sense to give him a shot to prove himself instead of selling low now with all the other question marks surrounding the team.

Also, rumors are that this trade had been discussed for quite some time, with Minaya reluctant to pull the trigger and part with Milledge, so what made now the right time? I doubt teams were banging down the door for Schneider and Church.

They sold low on Milledge and bought high on Church and Schneider (who the Nats overvalued). Let’s say for a second that the Mets have significant reason to believe Milledge isn’t going to pan out. Keep in mind, they’ve already told us that other teams had lost interest in him.

To me, that’s a poor reflection on the Mets organization, the past two seasons we wouldn’t trade Milledge for a high end pitcher (which we are now desperate for) and all of the sudden he’s not even a significant trading chip to keep around while we look at the various options, or consider him for the starting spot in RF? How come other teams realized this before the people watching him day in and day out? Disappointing to say the least.

After the last two seasons, it wouldn’t be fair to totally disregard the pressure the Wilpon’s and Minaya are under to win now, and I think this move clearly illustrates that line of thought.

I’m going to reserve complete judgment until the rest of the moves are made, because acquiring a legit starter or two and improving the bullpen would make this team a serious contender and thus this trade could be more justified as well. I’m more upset with how/when it happened and how it makes me worry about the front office, than the fact that Milledge may have been undervalued a bit (but not nearly as much as most of the die-hard Mets fans would have you believe – this is not Kazmir for Zambrano)

In the meantime, I’m disappointed to see Thrilledge go as I hoped he’d mature into a perfect fit for this Mets team and become a fan favorite for years to come. But, so is the game…good Luck in Washington, I’ll be rooting for you – at least for 144 games of the year or so.



Thursday, November 29, 2007

In-N-Out Challenge

Coming off a week where the Dolphins couldn't get 3 measly points and the Eagles found a way to not only break the hearts of their city as they routinely do, but an entire nation - I don't have too much to say.

So let's get straight to the picks.

Click Clack.


Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams -3.5
Durden: I’d be a hell of a lot more excited to pick the Rams if Bulger was playing, but I think we’ll just see more of Steven Jackson in turn, and it should be enough. It’s funny to think that this St. Louis team appears to be healthier, only because they’re now losing guys at a slightly slower rate than the others start to come back.
Pick: Rams -3.5

Mazzone: It’s pretty amazing how unappealing the schedule is this week and it starts with Gus Frerotte against whoever the Falcons decide to put out there.
Pick: Rams -3.5

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins -6
Durden: Since I was a kid, I’ve always liked following the University of Miami’s football program, and Sean Taylor was undoubtedly my favorite player to ever come out of the U. I don’t know what it was specifically that intrigued me, but it could’ve been any combination of my fascination with the safety position, his being an athletic freak, his private personality and/or the dark visor. I would go on to name my fantasy football team after him and even come up with a clumsy anagram, WWSTD (What Would Sean Taylor Do), that I’d use for his big plays/games.

Admittedly, it became tougher to root for him as the list of off-the-field issues grew, but it appears he was still able to change his ways at a young age. Unfortunately, his tragic death now leaves those close to him grieving, and the rest of us wondering how great he could have been. I don’t think I ever checked a Miami or Redskins box score without checking to see his defensive stats, and for once, I think Clinton Portis summed something up better than anyone else could:

"Time after time I always told you all that he was the best player I've ever seen," Portis said. "For me to put that jersey on, I can't live up to those expectations. I can't be Sean Taylor, so I wouldn't even try."
Pick: Redskins -6

Mazzone: The sentimental favorite to make a late season run at the playoffs should have no problem with the Bills this week if they can keep their emotions in check.
Pick: ‘Skins -6

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings -3.5
Durden: Weeks ago, I think I’d have been all over the Lions here, but these teams appear to be headed in opposite directions. Detroit can’t seem to figure out what went wrong on offense, and facing the Vikings’ run D won’t help. Assuming they bottle up KJ, Kitna appears to be in for another day of getting beat up in the pocket. Oh yea, and that Adrian Peterson guy should be back for Minnesota…
Pick: Vikings -3.5

Mazzone: Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Vikings have looked good even without Adrian Peterson and the Lions have lost two straight. There are even unconfirmed rumors that Tarvaris Jackson actually threw a TD pass and only two incompletions (none of which were picked off) against the Giants. I feel like the Vikings are the obvious pick here, at home against the struggling Lions. But, I just can’t bring myself to believe Tarvaris Jackson is the obvious choice to back, and since the Lions love to pick the ball off, I’m going to give them a chance to redeem themselves for coming up short on Thanksgiving.
Pick: Lions +3.5

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans -4
Durden: The Texans nearly came back from 25 against the Titans in the first game, and they did so without Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Still, I feel obligated to stick with my mantra of “Albert Haynesworth just wins football games.” He’s back, and Tennessee will be too after Sunday.
Pick: Titans -4

Mazzone: Maybe Durden was right and it’s not Vince Young’s crappy QBing that’s been winning games, but Albert Haynesworth’s defense. Even though he's probably back, the Titans just seem to be out of gas, so I’m sticking with the Texans that I thought would finish above .500 and still need a few wins to get there.
Pick: Texans +4

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts -6.5
Durden: Since the game against New England, Indianapolis has struggled in large stretches of each of its last 3 games. When you consider that, Indy’s injuries, and how solid Jacksonville has been, this line seems high to me.
Pick: Jaguars +6.5

Mazzone: The Colts have been beat up, but are back on the winning track. Meanwhile, the Jags have been pretty consistent and solid despite all the pre-season turmoil surrounding their QB position. This is one of the few games I’d really like to watch this week, which leads me to believe it will be a disappointment. Colts took care of business the first time around, and I think Peyton should be able to rally the troops for a big game at home.
Pick: Colts -6.5

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins -1.5
Durden: While I do think Miami can win this game, I’m also not-so-secretly rooting for them to pull it off. Why? Because I want no part of their first win coming against my Ravens.
Pick: Dolphins -1.5

Mazzone: 0-11 and STILL favored over the Jets! Alllllllright Miami!
Pick: Dolphins -1.5

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs +6
Durden: It appears as though the Chargers have come on, enough so that Norv Turner may not be able to screw this up a trip to the playoffs. Kansas City is spiraling after 4 consecutive losses, and I just can’t pick the combination of Brodie Croyle and Kolby Smith against a good team, even at home.
Pick: Chargers -6

Mazzone: I had been telling Durden that the “Open Gates Ahead” street sign outside of Qualcomm had nothing to do with stadium parking and everything to do with Antonio Gates being unstoppable. It couldn’t have been more true last weekend when we watched as the Ravens decided to not even bother trying to cover him. Phil Rivers still isn’t very good and KC is a tough place to play, but I think the Chiefs are terrible.
Pick: Chargers -6

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles -3
Durden: And just like that, Seattle has begun to separate itself from the rest of the woeful NFC West teams. It’s not pretty and it doesn’t usually make sense, but I’ve come to accept Seattle’s annual trip to the playoffs, as I’ve written before. This means they’re due for a loss to keep it interesting, and the Eagles are a perfect team to take advantage after being America’s team for 59 minutes. Plus, maybe it’s not too late for Shaun Alexander to come back and ruin Seattle’s season, in addition to his and Mo Mo’s fantasy seasons.
Pick: Eagles -3

Mazzone: AJ YOU HAD THEM! THEY WERE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE AND YOU LET ‘EM OFF THE HOOK! I don’t think I’ve ever rooted so hard for a team I wasn’t actually a fan of. I was calling for the Feeley highlights of his victory over the Patriots with the Dolphins early on and when they showed them, I was downright giddy. Greg Lewis was even putting on a show that would have made Mini-Greg Lewis proud if he were still alive today.
The story of Mini-Greg Lewis:
In 2005, Durden and I went in on a few boxes for a Super Bowl pool, and it was Greg Lewis’ improbable 30-yard TD with under 2 minutes to play that made the final score 24-21 and made us the victors. With some of the money we purchased iPods and I named mine Mini-Greg Lewis in honor of the man who brought us the win. Since then, we’ve continued the routine and have won at least 1 quarter in each of the past 3 SB box pools. People insist on calling it luck, but we know better. I’ve since moved on to newer iPods, but I’ll never forget Mini-Greg Lewis and how he changed my life forever.
With that, I’m going with the Seahawks.
Pick: ‘Hawks +3

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers -3
Durden:
Just a terrible game. I’ve been picking against the Panthers for weeks, and now there’s the added bonus of rooting for the 49ers to win, in hopes of the Patriots getting the worst draft pick possible.
Pick: 49ers +3

Mazzone: Another thriller courtesy of the NFC as the Panthers continue their quest to go winless at home. Hopefully, this is the week Steve Smith explodes and just starts body slamming his teammates and coaches.
Pick: Niners +3


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints -3.5
Durden:
I’m not gonna lie, I was all set to continue riding the Bucs with this pick, but it appears they’ll be without Jeff Garcia. Garcia may not be a worldbeater, but he doesn’t turn the ball over and it seems he’s been a perfect fit for their offense. Since I have no idea what they’ll get out of Luke McCowski, I’ll take New Orleans.
Pick: Saints -3.5

Mazzone: Last week the Redskins fumbled the game away to the Bucs, I don’t see the Saints doing the same. Two teams battling for the right to get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. I’d rather see the Saints, and I think they’ll cover this week, but Gruden has to get some props for what he’s done with this Bucs team. They are severely undermanned in terms of talent, but they come to play every week and could pretty much wrap up the division this week with a win.
Pick: Saints -3.5

Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals -1
Durden:
See: Seahawks lucking into the playoffs.
Pick: Browns +1


Mazzone:
Seeing Kurt Warner’s patented fumble cost the Cards the game was fun, but Neil Rackers should have never let it get that far. The thing with this game is that I can’t see Cleveland losing to the Jets, Bills, or San Fran, and it’s not like the Bengals are some great threat either. So out of the last 5 games, three wins are practically guaranteed. I can’t see the Browns finishing the season with 11+ wins and reeling off 7 straight to close the seasons, so this seems as good as any for them to stumble.
Pick: Cards -1

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders +3.5
Durden: Denver had been playing well recently and they simply gave the Bears the game last week. Since they’ve been inconsistent this season, I’m cautious about picking them before I see how they bounce back from Sunday’s game. Meanwhile, the Raiders continue to be in nearly every game they play despite their record, so I’ll take the points at home.
Pick: Raiders +3.5


Mazzone:
I think the Denver offense might finally be coming around. They also get Javon Walker and possibly Travis Henry back this week. As long as Cutler doesn’t turn the ball over and Hester doesn't suit up for the Raiders, this one should turn into a route pretty quickly.
Pick: Denver -3.5


New York Giants @ Chicago Bears +2
Durden:
Here we go again with Plax. It appears he’s now down to one leg, can’t practice…sooo he should be good for 150 yards and a touch. The Giants simply aren’t as bad as they looked last week, while the Bears are as bad as they’ve looked all season.
Pick: Giants -2

Mazzone:
It’s being built as Eli vs. Rex, but it’s not a fair fight. Last week’s performance aside, Eli and the Giants are just better on both sides of the ball. The good news for the Bears is that Cedric Benson is finally done for the year, so they don’t have to give him the ball and pretend like they think he’s going to be productive.
Pick: Giants -2

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Durden: Earlier this season, some were claiming Pittsburgh would be a serious threat to New England while I was pointing out how weak their schedule was. Now with an 11-3 record, but coming off consecutive games decided by 3 points vs the Jets and Dolphins, it appears the truth is not surprisingly somewhere in the middle. Truthfully, I’d been planning on confidently taking the Steelers this week in my Survivor pool, but I’m not so confident after the Bengals blew the Titans out last week. This pick is a lot more wishful thinking than anything else.
Pick: Steelers -7

Mazzone:
The Steelers tried their damndest to let the Dolphins win one on that poor excuse for a football field, but to no avail. Some think the Steelers performance last week knocks them down a peg, but if you watched the game the field was truly unplayable and you can't take anything away from it really. They are still a top team and I think the Bengals manhandling of the Titans was more a mirage than it was Cincy all of the sudden discovering themselves.
Pick: Steelers -7

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens +20.5
Durden: Why not? (Don’t answer that.)
Pick: Ravens +20.5

Mazzone:
I can’t see the Pats playing two close games in a row, but I’ll be rooting for Kyle Boller and company to pull of the miraculous upset. If there’s anyone who could take out Tom Brady for the rest of the season, it’d be the hard hitting Ravens defense. Maybe Ray-Ray will even bring his knife to the game.
Pick: Patriots -20.5

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

NFL Thursday

Supposedly, there's a pretty big football game tonight, unfortunately most of the country won't be able to see it.

Durden added 3 more games to his lead last week as my run of 5 consecutive weeks over .500 came to an end, thanks in large part to my poor showing on Thanksgiving where I believed in the Lions and didn't believe in the Colts.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys -7
Mazzone: I wanted to take the Packers after hearing about how great Aaron Rodgers has been excelling in his role as scout team QB this year. It's just a great story to see him doing well after his draft day embarrassment. Despite not being able to master Tony Romo's "no look pass" yet, he seems like he's having a great time. Except for the week they made him play the role of Vinny Testaverde and he wasn't allowed to leave the pocket. True story.

Anyway, I just think the Cowboys are better and will win comfortably, but if I'm wrong it probably means Jacque Reeves is getting torched. So really, it's a win win for me. That's why I'm looking forward to following along on NFL.com gamecast while watching The Office.

I hate you Time Warner Cable.
Pick: Cowboys -7


Durden: As predicted, the Packers are coming off their 6th consecutive victory and here I am pulling for the Cowboys. I know the game isn't as easily accessible as it should be, but I think the real story is the folks at the NFL Network having their mouths full slurping on Favre and Romo. Tony's the heir to Brett's throne, but we're still years away from Favre's retirement and the media becoming full-fledged homos for Romo. Therefore, while I think this spread is slightly high, I'm going with a good old-fashioned pick out of spite nonetheless.
Pick:
Cowboys -7

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Giggity Giggity - Quagmire, Steelers too much for Dolphins

Blah, another week, another disappointing loss. There's not a whole lot you can say about a game played under those conditions, but here's a couple quick tidbits.

-after just two starts for Beck, there's reason to believe he and Ginn will continue to develop some chemistry together and ultimately have success.

-I've been supportive of Cam Cam since day one, though not agreeing with all his decisions, but clearly he's a rookie coach with a lot of learning to do. 4th and 15 he not only elects to go for it instead of punting, but wastes a timeout to make the decision (and then calls a play action pass as if the steelers were going to bite). Beck was forced to use another timeout early in the second half after not getting the play in on time and the Dolphins were left with just 1 time out in a tie game down the stretch.

-On the positive side, he's handled Beck pretty well so far and trying to put him in situations to be successful (aside from the 4th and 15 call). Most of the pass plays involved max protection to keep him from getting hammered against a talented Steelers D and quick developing patterns so he didn't have to hold it too long.

-Beck returned the favor with good decision making as he hasn't turned the ball over in two road games against solid defenses (Philly, Pittsburgh). For the most part, his accuracy, awareness, and timing seemed to be there last night, despite the conditions and a few drops from the receivers - I'm looking forward to seeing more of him and seeing him develop. It's early, but as of right now there's no reason to think Beck absolutely couldn't be a more than capable starter next season.

-The defense is in shambles, despite not giving up points in the muck, I didn't exactly think they were impressive as they allowed Wet Willie to run for 81 yards and Big Ben to complete 18 of his 21 passes. Hopefully we see a draft heavily skewed toward the defensive side of the ball.

Well, it's always been said, if we win two games all year, let it be against the J.E.T.S. One shot left next week and they are certainly beatable. The Dolphins have lost way too many close games this year, and will hopefully emerge from next week's game as the best 1-11 team in the NFL.


Later tonight/early tomorrow I plan to talk about the Mets offseason pitching options, and maybe I'll even play some devil's advocate for entertainment purposes and talk about why Johan Santana may not be the best option - stay tuned to see if i actually believe that or not.