The beast has been fed...

Unfortunately, the Dolphins still suck.

If you remember my initial post in this blog was all about Ronnie Brown and the bad rap he'd been getting from the fans and the media. Well, now he leads the entire NFL (and your local fantasy leagues) in total yards from scrimmage so I thought it'd be fun to revisit it again.

All along I've felt he was the right draft pick and liked what I saw from him with limited opportunity. He's been mired in coaching changes, philosophy changes, the Ricky Williams fiasco, an awful supporting cast, among other things, but he's finally getting a chance to showcase himself.

I know people will still scoff at the idea of Ronnie being a legitimate NFL running back, let alone the superstar I expect him to become. But just for fun, let's take a look at some numbers. You know what he's done the last two games, and since it's against sub-par defenses, people are already trying to dismiss it.

So, let's take a look at a larger sample. Brown has just 15 games in his short career where he's touched the ball 20 times or more. If you remember, that was my biggest knock on the Dolphins - not feeding Ronnie enough.

In those 15 games of 20+ touches, how many yards would you guess Ronnie Brown has totaled? 1100 (73/game)? 1500 (100/game)? 1750 (117/game)? Those last two seem pretty optimistic considering the state of the Dolphins over the past two seasons and the first four games of this season. Well, here are the numbers over those 15 games - not necessarily his best 15, just games where he had 20 or more touches:

358 touches, 1968 yards, 131.2/game, 5.5/touch.

That, of course, includes his 190 yard performance against the 7-0, Super Bowl bound, Bears defense last year when he and the Dolphins went into Chicago and gave them their first of three losses, 31-14.

One more time: 15 games, 1968 total yards. Comparisons?
Cadillac Williams has 16 games with 20+ touches. Here are his numbers:
407 touches, 1760 yards, 110/game, 4.3/touch

Ok, maybe you're looking for someone a little more prominent, not just related to Ronnie by draft class and position? How bout this guy...

LaDainian Tomlinson during his record setting season of a year ago:
16 games, 404 touches, 2323 yards, 145.2/game, 5.7/touch

Not that far off. Of course, Tomlinson's Chargers were 14-2 last year. Brown's Dolphins are 6-14 over his last 20 games. I can only imagine what Brown could do with the best fullback in the NFL (one of the best ever) and a half decent offensive line paving the way for him. Heck, I'd settle for a mildly threatening passing game to help out a bit, or a defense to keep the game close enough for him to keep getting the ball.

He's got the system, he's getting the touches, now please God surround him with some talent and we'll see something really special. I guarantee it.

Ronnie Brown: Feed The Beast

It’s frustrating to see Ronnie Brown fall victim to something I call Internet Perception Syndrome (IPS) among the Miami “faithful”. Thanks to the internet everyone is able to have their opinion reach a large number of people at a moments notice (blogs, message boards, emails, etc…). Unfortunately, the race to be the first to make a profound judgment oftentimes results in hollow statements lacking any sort of solid facts to support the claim. By the time anyone brings common sense and numbers to the table it’s usually too late to change the stubborn perceptions of the masses, but that doesn’t mean we can’t try...

The Miami Dolphins organization hadn’t drafted anyone higher than 15^th since 1992 (Troy Vincent – 7^th, and Marco Coleman – 12^th) and hadn’t drafted a running back in the top ten since 1989. In 2005, when they selected Ronnie Brown second overall, they hoped he was anything but the next Sammie Smith.

Naturally, the expectations were off the charts from a fan base that was used to winning and was ready for a new face of the offense in the wake of the Ricky Williams debacle. To further complicate matters for Brown, he was coming into the league with several question marks including being able to carry a full workload in the NFL after splitting carries at Auburn with Cadillac Williams.

Entering his third season, he’s yet to distinguish himself as an elite NFL running back and the list of critics is growing with each passing day. Fans have labeled him a bust and league pundits are close to doing the same. His own coach even implied that he hasn’t lived up to expectations (however unreasonable they may have been) while hinting that he may split carries with a running back that has all of 79 career rushing attempts and was overweight and out of football for the 2006 season (Jesse Chatman).

It’s tough to believe that we were spoiled after just one phenomenal 2002 season from the dreadlocked enigma that we wouldn’t give anyone else another shot if they didn’t produce the same way immediately, but that seems to be the case. All things considered, Brown’s performance/numbers simply don’t warrant the degree of disparagement he’s received this offseason.

If you look at the overall numbers, you’re surely not going to be overly impressed (1915 yards rushing and 9 rushing TDs over 2 seasons). But simply looking at overall numbers is usually what leads people to misconceptions, so let’s take a deeper look at Brown's sophomore season.

Ronnie Brown:
13 Games: 4.2 YPC, 8.4 Yards per reception, 98.7 total yards per game, 5 TD’s, 9 plays over 20 yards, 4 fumbles. Those numbers are comparable if not better than the other RB’s drafted near him in the 2005 draft and aside from the lack of TD's they also stack up pretty well to the second year numbers of top RB’s such as Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, Willis McGahee and others.

98.7 yards a game would put him just under 1600 yards for the season. Only 7 running backs had more than 1600 yards from scrimmage last year:
Steven Jackson
Ladainian Tomlinson
Larry Johnson
Frank Gore
Tiki Barber
Brian Westbrook
Willie Parker

A couple of notes here:
Average record of the teams of those players was roughly 9-7 (all of which were in playoff contention). The Dolphins were 6-10. Did anyone on that list have a worse offensive line than Ronnie Brown? Did anyone on that list have a less threatening passing game than the dolphins (you could probably argue the chiefs, but that’s about it)? Did any of those players have Mike Mularkey calling triple reverse half back passes in the red zone? :)

You see where I’m going, but here’s the other thing. If Ronnie didn’t miss those 3 games (to a flukey finger injury) last year (where Sammy Morris averaged 104 total yards per game replacing him) he likely would have been in the top 8 in total yards from scrimmage in the NFL. In his second year in the league (first as a full time back), he would have accomplished that despite the team’s deficiencies around him and despite the following list showing you the avg. number of touches per game:

Steven Jackson – 27.2 touches per game
Ladainian Tomlinson – 25.3
Larry Johnson – 28.5
Frank Gore – 23.3
Tiki Barber – 24.1
Brian Westbrook – 21.1
Willie Parker – 23.0
Ronnie Brown – 21.0

I could pull up countless other stats that show Ronnie is doing his job when called upon, but this post has already ran far longer than I had intended. I didn’t even get to mention his pass blocking skills, his work ethic, or his character, but I’ll leave you with this.

Look back at the 2005 draft and see how many people drafted in the top 10 you’d rather have over Ronnie Brown right now. RB23 is not the problem. I hope the coaching staff and front office don’t give up on him as quickly as the fans seem to be. Surround him with any form of help, FEED THE BEAST, and watch him explode onto the scene.

Believe in Ronnie Brown. Believe in football.