Breakdown of the Mets/Nats Trade

If you’re a Mets fan, you probably fall into one of two classes right now.

1) The trade is an abomination (Kazmir/Zambrano part II) and the organization is clueless.

2) The trade might not, kinda sorta, be all that terrible, depending on how you look at it and let’s wait until Minaya is done with all moves to judge him.

One thing's for sure, I haven’t heard a single person outside of the Mets organization truly lauding the trade from the Mets' perspective, and that should speak volumes right there.

Before giving my personal final assessment I’m going to play both sides of the coin and first spin it as a positive, then look at the negatives.

The Pros:

Starting with Church–
All things considered, Ryan Church should be comparable, if not better, offensively and certainly an upgrade defensively over Lastings Milledge… for next season at least. Church was 35^th in the NL in OPS and SLG. Of the Mets regulars who had enough plate appearances to qualify, that’s good enough to place Church behind only Carlos Beltran and David Wright, despite playing in RFK, a worse hitters park than Shea and with far worse talent around him in the batting order.

Also, while Church had an unfortunate incident regarding religious beliefs, Milledge has had quite a few more incidents and personality conflicts with his teammates/management while attempting to grow up in the New York City spotlight. So in that regard, I think clubhouse/chemistry wise Church and Schneider will probably turn out to be an upgrade over L-Millz.

As for Brian Schneider -
Aside from expecting a decline as he ages, it’s tough to argue against the defensive abilities of Schneider. Even if he declines, he’s a significant upgrade over anything the Mets have had in recent history. Over the past four seasons here are Schneider’s caught stealing percentages and where he ranks in all of baseball:
2007 - 31.2% caught stealing/7^th in MLB
2006 - 30.2%/12^th
2005 - 40.0%/5^th
2004 – 50%/ 1^st

He also hasn’t had a fielding percentage worse than 99.2% since his rookie season. So, in theory, the improved defense and ability to throw runners out should help the pitching staff.

As far as his hitting goes, it’s certainly not pretty, but over the past three seasons, his OPS and SLG are significantly better against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Over the same period of time, Ramon Castro has had a propensity to mash left-handed pitching, so it might not be that terrible of a one-two punch from the 8 spot in the lineup. Furthermore, Schneider’s RBI and HR per at bat numbers are better than those of Paul Lo Duca over the past three seasons. Besides, it’s not like huge offensive production out of the 8 spot/catcher position is a necessity in order to be successful.

So, to close out the positive spin in the most drastic of ways:
In Milledge, the Mets gave up a young player with potential, but also an unproven prospect with character issues. They lost a player with questionable defensive ability, who’s struggled mightily to hit right-handed pitching, or anything not going fast and straight, to be honest. His trade value had seemingly plummeted because other teams noticed these flaws before the Mets did.

In return, they received a significant defensive upgrade at catcher (younger than their previous starter), and an upgrade both defensively and offensively in the OF for the current season.

Prospects are suspects until proven otherwise (just ask the Alex’s – Escobar and Ochoa to name a couple), and if the goal is to win now, to win this season, then this trade clearly is a good move, unless…

You Think The Glass Is Half Empty:
As bad as Milledge currently is against right-handed pitching, Church is even worse against left-handed pitching. It’s to the point where you really can’t even play him.

Last season, he batted .229 with .339 SLG and .655 OPS, compared to his numbers against righties of .287/.506/.866. The big difference between the two is that Milledge is 22, with the potential to improve drastically. At age 29, barring some unforeseen breakout season, we’re probably looking at marginal improvements for Church, at best.

Milledge may have lacked maturity and focus while struggling defensively, but at the age of 22 it should have been expected that he wouldn’t be completely polished when they threw him into the fire. Last I checked, Jose Reyes and countless others had their fair share of growing pains on the way to stardom. Is Church really going to give you THAT much more than Milledge this year? How bout for the next 5 years?

Then there’s Brian Schneider. He’s a really nice guy, like David Eckstein, but like Eckstein, he isn’t much of a ballplayer.

Saying he can’t hit is a gross understatement. He’s practically an automatic out coming off a season where he hit (cringe) .235 with an OPS of .662 and a SLG of .377. Sure, his defensive numbers were spectacular… in ’04 and ’05. The past two seasons, while still solid, he’s dropped off a bit.

Johnny Estrada on the other hand brings a much better bat to the table, and his throwing numbers weren’t terrible in ‘05/’06 (between 29-31%). In 2007, Estrada was terrible throwing guys out, but if you look at his career numbers it seems to be a mirage and the offseason surgery to remove a bone spur in his throwing elbow should get him back to where he was. Is Estrada a bit more of a risk defensively? Absolutely. Is he a phenomenal all around catcher? Of course not, but he’s probably a comparable stop gap, and did I mention the Mets acquired him for virtually nothing (Guillermo Mota)?

Lastly, let’s talk about the myth that Schneider is great at handling pitchers and calling a game. Not only have we heard from a Washington Nationals blogger on the topic, but let’s look at his CERA (Catcher's earned-run average. Earned-run average of club's pitchers with a particular catcher behind the plate).

In ’04 and ’05 he had some success with CERA’s of 3.83 and 3.88 but again, in his past two seasons we see a drastic drop off. In 2006, he was second to last among qualified catchers with a CERA of 5.28 and in 2007 he was 4^th worst with a CERA of 4.79. Naturally, there are a lot of other factors that go into handling a pitching staff and their performance (like talent for example), so I’m not going to kill him on those numbers, but to say Schneider is significantly better than the next guy isn’t really fair either. By comparison, here are Estrada and Lo Duca’s CERA’s over the past four seasons .
Estrada 04-07: 3.77, 3.92, 4.43, 4.45
Lo Duca 04-07: 3.83, 3.79, 4.31, 4.12

So, to close the case for the glass half empty folks:
The Mets gave up one of their most hyped prospects who could have filled a need position for the next several seasons (or at least been traded for something better at some point). Milledge’s quick bat and pure athleticism seemed to have him primed to develop into a premier player – one that would fit perfectly in the lineup with the other young Mets’ studs and provide a great foundation for years to come.

Even if his value had declined, it couldn’t have possibly declined to the point where the return is an aging defensive catcher who can’t hit for anything and a 29 year-old outfielder that you essentially have to platoon because - against lefties - he too is an automatic out. If we ever saw Church-Schneider-Pitcher against a lefty, we may as well concede the inning and save the energy of running in and out of the dugout, as that trio would translate into Rey Ordonez batting three consecutive times. Ok, maybe that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but you get the point.

Did I forget to touch on the fact that the Mets will have to face Milledge 18 times a year for the next 5-10 years?

Final Assessment:
My biggest problem isn’t necessarily the value of the pieces being exchanged in this particular trade, but the apparent thought process behind it (or lack thereof) and as Keith Law said in a recent chat “the mismanagement of assets” by the Mets.

Clearly the Mets’ biggest need is pitching, so the question is why do you make this move before you sort out the rotation and the bullpen? If they fail to land a front line starter, and/or improve the bullpen are they really serious contenders for a World Series title? Probably not, especially if Johan Santana heads to the Red Sox, or the Phillies and Braves improve.

So, why not give Milledge a full season to see what he’s capable of – especially if his trade value had dropped off THAT much (which I find hard to believe considering he’s only 22, showed signs of improvement, and his value was sky high just 12-18 months ago). It would make more sense to give him a shot to prove himself instead of selling low now with all the other question marks surrounding the team.

Also, rumors are that this trade had been discussed for quite some time, with Minaya reluctant to pull the trigger and part with Milledge, so what made now the right time? I doubt teams were banging down the door for Schneider and Church.

They sold low on Milledge and bought high on Church and Schneider (who the Nats overvalued). Let’s say for a second that the Mets have significant reason to believe Milledge isn’t going to pan out. Keep in mind, they’ve already told us that other teams had lost interest in him.

To me, that’s a poor reflection on the Mets organization, the past two seasons we wouldn’t trade Milledge for a high end pitcher (which we are now desperate for) and all of the sudden he’s not even a significant trading chip to keep around while we look at the various options, or consider him for the starting spot in RF? How come other teams realized this before the people watching him day in and day out? Disappointing to say the least.

After the last two seasons, it wouldn’t be fair to totally disregard the pressure the Wilpon’s and Minaya are under to win now, and I think this move clearly illustrates that line of thought.

I’m going to reserve complete judgment until the rest of the moves are made, because acquiring a legit starter or two and improving the bullpen would make this team a serious contender and thus this trade could be more justified as well. I’m more upset with how/when it happened and how it makes me worry about the front office, than the fact that Milledge may have been undervalued a bit (but not nearly as much as most of the die-hard Mets fans would have you believe – this is not Kazmir for Zambrano)

In the meantime, I’m disappointed to see Thrilledge go as I hoped he’d mature into a perfect fit for this Mets team and become a fan favorite for years to come. But, so is the game…good Luck in Washington, I’ll be rooting for you – at least for 144 games of the year or so.

Mets Offseason Update

If you haven't been following along at Metsblog (shame on you), the Mets recently made their first significant moves of the hot stove season (re-signing Luis Castillo, trading for Johnny Estrada).

There's no need to spend too much time talking about the Estrada trade, it was a no-brainer for the Mets. Many believe the Mets were done with Mota, regardless, and the fans had certainly seen enough of him, so to get anything in return was nice - let alone a starting catcher.

Estrada has bounced around and had some conflict with his team and manager last season, but all things considered I still prefer him to the alternatives, for the following reasons:
a) He was cheap (1 year left on his contract, only cost Mota)
b) He's a switch hitter with a solid bottom of the order bat (despite his low OPS)
c) His defensive numbers could revert back to '05-'06 after having a bone spur removed from his throwing elbow.
d) Younger than the man he's replacing (Lo Duca)

All in all he's a nice compliment to Castro and they didn't have to part with any major trading chips, so they should still be able to land pitching help. The Torrealba deal falling through could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Even if Estrada doesn't pan out they can cut ties with him at the end of the season and essentially end up not paying anything since the Brewers are picking up Mota's contract.


As far as Castillo goes, I think most Mets fans wanted to see him back as he fits in the two spot pretty well, his defense is still solid, and he seemed to fit in nicely with the teams' personalities. The concerns are obviously his health issues, as well as the rumors that he was having a negative influence on Reyes off the field. You have to think if those were true the Mets would have let him walk considering there were similar options to pursue. The only other option that intrigued me was Orlando Hudson, but they would have had to acquire him via trade, and that likely would have hurt their chances of landing a pitcher, so Castillo was the right choice.

So, while 4-years is a lot to give to an aging player with bad knees, the market pretty much dictated that was necessary as both the Astros and Cubs coveted Castillo, and even David Eckstein is pursuing a 4-year deal worth more than what Castillo was given.

Speaking of Eckstein, I'm elated the Mets stayed away from him as details of his grit/hustle/determination equating to success on the field are greatly exaggerated. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the work ethic, and I'm sure he's a nice guy and great in the clubhouse and all. He just can't play professional baseball very well at all. If you want the full break down on how truly overrated Eckstein has been over the past few years, thanks to the media, head over to Fire Joe Morgan.com as they have a wonderful obsession with Eckstein.


Naturally, Mets fans were getting impatient 30 seconds into the hot stove season, but now they have some things to talk about and with Omar Minaya all but guaranteeing to upgrade the pitching staff, it will be interesting to see what's next.

I'll discuss the pitching options in trade and FA and give my opinions on each later in the week. Football picks for the Thanksgiving Day games will be up late this evening.

In the meantime, stay tuned in to Metsblog for the latest info and check back here for my expanded opinion on the Mets offseason and other baseball moves.

Sorry, blame it on me...

Rockies fans might not want to get too excited just yet. I heard Michael Barrett is on his way to Philly to tag out Matt Holliday since he still hasn't touched home plate...



Taking a step back from being the Mets fan that I am, I feel like the Padres missing out on the playoffs was equally devastating. But, since they play in San Diego, their fans aren't as crazy, and the Mets are the Mets, we won't hear as much about the way the Padres went down.

The Mets collapse was certainly epic and one for the record books. It was more drawn out and excruciating over the final three weeks or so of the season, but let's compare it to the Padres.

Aside from losing out on the division to a team who let up more runs than they scored, they have to deal with how they blew their playoff chance.

First, it's the Rockies who come out of nowhere to tie them, going on a run that was even more improbable than the slide the Mets went on. As much as the Phillies played well and did their job in going 17-11 against mostly sub par teams, it was nothing compared to the Rockies winning 20 games in the month (13 of their last 14) and 10 of which came against the Phils, Pads, D'backs. Both teams played the opponents that overtook them in the standings the final month and shot blanks (Mets went 0-3 against the Phils, Pads went 1-5 against the Rockies).

Even so, the Pads had destiny in their own hands when one of the best closers ever needed just 1 out in Milwaukee to clinch the wild card. Of course, Trevor Hoffman blew the save. It happens, right? Not often with him, but here's the kicker.

It was TONY GWYNN JR. (originally from? that's right, Tony Gwynn's penis) that drove in the tying run with a two out triple. Not only did they fail to clinch that night, but it was at the hands of the son of their greatest player ever. That's rough.

Then, they lost another lead the following night and, after a Rockies win over division leader Arizona, they were forced to head to Colorado for the tie breaker.

No worries though, they go into Colorado and again found themselves three outs away from the playoffs with Hoffman on the mound.

To put this in perspective - Trevor Hoffman had converted 90% of his save opportunities in his career with 524 saves and 61 blown saves prior to his last two appearances. He had a WHIP around 1 and an ERA around 2.70. Over his 882 game career, he's averaged 1 base runner per inning pitched, and even less this year. Giving up, two, or three runs after blowing the save in Milwaukee seemed far-fetched to say the least.

Sure enough, the Rockies put together a rally and scored three off Hoffman... sort of.

As I mentioned earlier, Holliday still hasn't touched home plate and at the time it appeared the umpire knew it, and called him safe anyway. Just a bizarre end to the baseball season.



So, what's a worse way to miss out on the playoffs? Feel free to vote in the poll at the left, here are the closing arguments...

You could certainly argue the Mets for all the different ways they could have wrapped up a playoff spot, how big a lead they had, and how talented the team was. You could also argue it's more difficult since they'll hear about it every year for the rest of their lives, no matter how big a lead they have. Also, it was the division that was lost, not just the wild card. Moreover, their fan base will be much more devastated than that of the Padres as evident by the cries to fire Willie, trade Reyes, cut Delgado, and do everything you can to land Johan Santana (and this was before they missed the playoffs).

But, the Mets never came as close to actually wrapping up a playoff spot as the Padres did. Blowing three leads in the last three games of the season and their best reliever, one of the greatest ever, blowing two saves: one involving the son of the franchises biggest hero and one where the winning run didn't even touch home plate. If the Mets had gone out the way the Padres did, would the uproar not have been just as bad? Could you imagine if a New York team missed the post-season on a run that never actually happened?!

Either way, both are gut wrenching ways to go down. As a former Mets season ticket holder who recently relocated to San Diego in June, all I can say is...

Sorry, blame it on me

Everything falls apart...

"Let's get F'd up and die... I'm speaking figuratively of course," but what a brutal day.

It took all of 36 pitches from Tom Glavine to know the Mets were out of the playoffs. There's really nothing worth talking about with regards to the collapse, it is what it is, it's over, it's awful, and we're stuck with it forever. Hopefully it can be rendered a little less relevant with a World Series in the near future...


On top of that, barring an absolute miracle, the Dolphins season is over after just four weeks. This isn't terribly shocking, but it also wouldn't have been a big surprise if they had three wins right now. I wouldn't mind getting a good look at Beck sometime soon.

Maybe it was because of the circumstances of the day but it seemed like football as a whole was uninteresting today. Just another week further cementing the fact that there are maybe three really good teams and everyone else is a complete crapshoot from week to week.


Oh well, let's go around the league real quick before I get back to moping.
Let's start with the best and work our way down. Along the way I'm going to point out everything I got right and nothing that was wrong to make me feel a bit better about this depressing sports day:

The Colts fell behind 10-0 early, lost Marvin Harrison after 1 reception for 8 yards and it didn't phase them one bit. You pretty much have to play a perfect football game to beat the Colts right now. They make you pay for every single mistake and they don't make many of their own.

Cowboys struggled mightily early on against the Rams and still demolished them. The Rams are a complete mess right now and with all the injuries there is little hope. As for the Cowboys, sure they haven't really played anyone all that great, but they win convincingly. Also, they won't have to really play anyone to make it to the Super Bowl (the Packers?! give me a break). If they stay healthy, it's going to take Romo absolutely shitting the bed in a playoff game to keep them out of the Super Bowl. Called this blow out in the weekly picks.

Everyone's favorite gunslinger broke a record today, but not the one TPS was rooting for. Packers moved to 4-0, but the Vikings hung around for awhile and had their potential game tying drive halted by a missed pass interference call which resulted in an interception. Even so, Green Bay looks like a playoff team. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson (my preseason rookie of the year pick) looks like a man-child. His ROY trophy has already been engraved.

Steelers stumbled today in Arizona as I had a hunch they might (see weekly picks). Pittsburgh fans probably aren't too concerned, nor should they be. They are fine, especially with the Ravens/Bengals/Browns failing to impress.

The Seahawks played much better today. Hasselbeck and Branch clearly have some chemistry. After Branch didn't catch a single pass in his first game, he's had 20 catches for 329 yards in his last three. Julian Peterson made a statement against his former team as the 49ers are proving me right so far and look to be a year away from being taken seriously.

An NFL record 34 point fourth quarter by the Lions moved them to 3-1 and puts the Bears season at risk. Urlacher claims it isn't over yet, but looking at the injuries and the QB play (Griese did his best Rex Grossman impersonation) it's looking pretty dismal for Da Bears. If they could replace their offensive possessions with 4 punts to Devin Hester they'd have a better chance.

Another big win for the Giants. It wasn't pretty on offense but the same defense that looked out of its league weeks one and two has been impenetrable the past two games. This game helped to prove the curse took the week off with Drew Brees on a bye. Keith (Giants fan) and his friend (Eagle's fan) were at the game and my brother's favorite play in football has long been "watching Donovan McNabb get sacked". Just when you're ready to stop believing, football pulls you back in, eh Keith? He also won his fantasy matchup against an 3-0 team. Truly bizarro world in sports today.

The Chargers are in trouble. Today's loss was absolutely embarrassing. They couldn't even put the Chiefs away at home after building a 10 point lead and getting LDT over hundred yards by half time.

I didn't catch much of the Browns/Ravens, but from what I've read it looks like the blame has to go on the red zone offense and the vaunted Ravens D. The Baltimore offense held the ball, moved the chains, and piled up yards but couldn't punch it in. Logic would tell me the red zone play calling wasn't adequate since the offense seemed to be executing otherwise. I'll check with Durden for more details on this one, but it might be time to be concerned if you're a Raven fan. Steve McNair threw 53 times, really?!

Joey Heisman learned what can happen when you don't turn the ball over in leading the Falcons to the upset win. Another upset called by yours truly.

David Carr can no longer "still be good". He was brutal despite his pretty white gloves, but I'm still not taking the Bucs seriously. The biggest story in this game is the devastating injury to Cadillac Williams. It could be career threatening.

It was annoying to see Culpepper score 5 TD's on the Dolphins, especially since he didn't do a damn thing. No, really, look at the numbers: 5 pass completions for 75 yards, 7 rushes for 28 yards. That's it. Unfortunately, the Dolphins D made LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas look like Bo Jackson and Marcus Allen. At least Ronnie Brown hasn't made me a liar. They finally get him touches the last two weeks and he produces (418 yards, 4 tds in last 2 games).

I mentioned to Durden how I liked Trent Edwards, so it was good to see him come up with a nice game, especially against the dumb Jets. Nothing else to say about this one as the AFC East is a complete joke, aside from the Patriots - of course.


So, another week in the books, another fantasy football win to build on, and I won both fantasy baseball championships as well. Unfortunately, none of that really eases the pain...

Aaaaaaaand we're baaaaaaaaaaaack

Wow... nearly speechless after a picture perfect day for the New York Mets.

Heading into this game, I was extremely nervous for the first time all season - and not just because of the circumstances and how poorly the Mets have played.

Last night, I was woken up at 4am when I heard a bit of a crash/boom from across the room. I woke up and glanced around, but everything seemed to be in order. Then, as I went to shrug it off and go back to sleep I caught it out of the corner of my eye... My Endy Chavez bobblehead doll had snapped at the cleat and fallen. There' was no explanation. Endy hadn't been touched since the day I took him out of the packaged months ago. It was symbolic of the last couple weeks, as there was no explanation for the Mets falling apart. I felt sick to my stomach knowing the Phils were in first and I'm up at 4am staring at a microcosm of the current state of the Mets just a few hours before a possible elimination game. Fortunately, it wasn't a bad omen after all.


I'm not sure how many times we'll hear "momentum is only as good as the next days starting pitcher" over the next 24 hours, but it probably won't be enough after what John Maine did today (especially compared to Adam Eaton).

The fans we're alive, the bats woke up, the benches cleared, and Maine had no hit stuff in the biggest game of the season to date. Simply amazing.

Tip of the cap to Matt Chico and the Nats who held up their end of the bargain with help from some Philly miscues. And to Tony Gwynn's son who, ironically, kept the Padres from clinching a playoff spot with a 2-out game tying triple off Trevor Hoffman in the bottom of the ninth.

So, the Mets are alive and well with one game to go.

As for momentum, here are tomorrows starting pitchers and their numbers in their last 3 starts...
Tom Glavine: 0-1, 17.2 innings, 22 hits, 12 earned runs, 4 BB's, 7 K's (Mets 0-3)
***Has faced Florida twice this season: 0-0, 11.1 innings, 18 hits, 6 ER, 2 BB's, 8 K's (Mets 0-2)

Jamie Moyer: 0-1, 18.1 innings, 17 hits, 9 earned runs, 10 BB's, 9 K's (Phils 1-2)
***Has faced Washington twice (both in April): 1-0, 10 hits, 5 ER, 7 BB's, 10 K's (Phils 2-0)

Brett Tomko: 2-0, 18 inngins, 15 hits, 7 earned runs, 3 BB's, 14 K's (Pads 3-0)
***Has faced Milwaukee once: 0-1, 5.1 innings, 8 hits, 5 earned runs, 1 BB, 5 K's

Also, Dontrelle Willis is 11-3 with a 2.49 ERA in 18 career starts against the Mets -- including 5-0 at Shea Stadium.


So, what's it all mean? Absolutely nothing.

If you haven't figured that out by now then you haven't been paying attention to this last month of baseball. Your guess is as good as mine, but it's going to be a hell of a ride. Needless to say, my Endy Chavez bobblehead sits where it fell, and there will be no attempts to fix it just yet.

LET'S GO METS!!!

Is it all burning to the ground?

I guess we're gonna find out. It's time to see how far we've come...

BEEP BEEP BEEP....That’s the sound of the Mets trying to back into the postseason.

There’s not a whole lot to you can say about the recent 5-10 record and the feeling of despair hovering over this team.

By now, everyone is aware of the trials and tribulations of the Mets pitching, especially the bullpen. It feels like it’ll take a complete game shutout just to get a win. Except they don’t have a starter that can get past the 5^th.

Last night’s debacle, combined with a Phillies win, closed the gap to one game.

So, the season comes down to four games in four days.

Proving that it takes more than one or two solid seasons to change the mindset of a historically demoralized fan base, a good number of Mets fans are spending their time trying to figure out which relievers to sign in the offseason, what it will take to land Johan Santana, and who’s going to replace Willie Randolph.

Personally, it's never been my style to give up like that, and I’m praying the Mets come through to let me atone for MY mistake last season.

As partial season ticket holders last year, my friends and I were entitled to one NLDS game, two NLCS games (1 and 7), and one World Series game (game 4) at Shea. Prior to the playoffs, I was forced to make a decision regarding a business trip: schedule it during the NLCS and hope there’s no game 7, or schedule it during the World Series and try to talk my way out of it (would have been extremely difficult at the time) if the Mets made it. I took it for granted that the Mets would steamroll their way through the National League, so I banked on there not being a game 7 in the NLCS.

Ever since that roller coaster night; watching the game alone in my hotel room, calling my friends for every big moment just to hear the crowd, and then not speaking to them for a week after Cardinal killer, Carlos Beltran, struck out looking with the bases loaded to end the season, I’ve been counting down the days until this postseason so both the Mets and I could redeem ourselves. They should have won, and I should have been there.

Since that day, my desktop background has been what should've been the image of the postseason, the defining moment in the championship run for the Mets…

I sleep with Shea stadium hanging over my head.














I wake up with the ’86 Mets on the nightstand to my left…















and right…



















And all day long while I work I’m reminded of what could have been…

So, on the cusp of the biggest night of the season to date, I watched the Mets 1986 DVDs, and then the 2006 DVD.

Remembering being in the stadium last year for the grand slams, the come backs, the stifling bullpen, the walk-offs, the double play at home plate, everything...

I remembered how I thought last year’s team was invincible, and so did they...

“Nothing is impossible… If we believe, we can do everything.”
- Carlos Beltran

“It really doesn’t matter what the score is. If we’re behind, we’re gonna win the game.”
– Tom Glavine

I remembered that, even without that aura, this year’s team is STILL the most talented and best overall team in the National League.

I remembered how the Cardinals finished last season 3-8 and the Tigers 0-4 (against Toronto and KC) before meeting in the World Series a few weeks later.

I remembered the Phillies are still the Phillies.

Then, I looked at the pitching matchups for tonight.
Pedro Martinez (NYM) vs. Joel Pineiro (STL)
John Smoltz (ATL) vs. Kyle Kendrick (PHI)

And I believed, because... Ya Gotta Believe.

LET’S GO METS!

Ya Gotta Believe

There will be a new football related post later tonight, but I had to get to this first...

All season long I’ve been in the small minority of Mets fans that haven’t really panicked. When Wright struggled early on, I was confident he’d be fine. When Joe Smith went from an early season hero and fan favorite (Durden has his authentic Jersey to prove it, possibly the only one ever made not worn by Smith) back to being, well… Joe Smith, I wasn’t really concerned. When Carlos Delgado’s slump proved to be season long, I was disappointed but still felt he would produce enough for the Mets to be successful. When the Phillies took four in a row, I was certainly annoyed - not because I thought the Mets we’re in danger of losing first place or missing the playoffs, but because I hate the phreaking Phillies. I told everyone to relax then, and I did so again after the most recent Phillies sweep. Only this time, the Mets didn’t bounce back like they were supposed to…

I was keeping a close eye on the game last night, smiling and nodding my way through 4 ½ innings against the last place Nationals. The offense and defense were solid, and Maine was just good enough to have the good guys up 7-3. They had found their way out of bizarro world again and were back on track to put the season away over the next week.

One-half inning and five runs later I felt sick to my stomach. Top it all off with the Phillies bullpen (seriously) leading them to a 14 inning win over the Cards and I finally found reason to be concerned.

Throughout the year, I've been saying how the Phillies were irrelevant regardless of how they played against the Mets. Well, now they are relevant thanks to a Mets team that recently made an incomprehensible 10 errors in two games. A team where the back of the rotation has turned into the mess skeptics thought it would be at the start of the season. A team with a bullpen that makes everything difficult, to say the least. Even our beloved Jose Reyes is falling apart: 3 RBI in 30 games, errors, baserunning mistakes (when he actually gets on – which is few and far between these days).

Are they pressing too much? Is it just a slump? Should Reyes have had more days off throughout the year? Should we have really added bullpen help (certainly not Gagne...) or a back end rotation guy at the trade deadline? Nobody knows for sure, and frankly nobody should care right now. It’s about how Willie and the Mets pulling it together over the next 12 days against some of the worst the National League has to offer (Nationals x4, Marlins x7, Cardinals).

If they separate themselves and ease into the postseason, or if the Phillies play the role of the typical Philadelphia sports team and collapse allowing the Mets to back their way in, I don’t really care at this point. How you play at the end of the season has no impact on how you perform in the postseason. I don't want to hear any of that "do you really think this team can do anything in october" talk. Everyone said the same thing about the Cardinals last year. Besides, look at the contenders.

We know about the Phillies issues in the rotation and in the bullpen (both among the worst in baseball), you can't think they are any better off than the Mets. The Diamondbacks have scored 665 runs this year. That's 23 LESS than they've allowed, and fifth worst in all of baseball. The Mets outscored them 30-22 and won the season series 4-3. They faced Brandon Webb and Livan Hernandez twice each, while the Mets threw Maine and Sosa twice, Pelfrey, Glavine, Perez once each (edge Mets in a playoff series). The Cubs and Brewers are both full of question marks and don't scare anyone. The Padres offense is almost as dismal as the D'backs and the Mets have shown they can hit their pitching (32 runs scored in six games, beat Peavy, beat Hoffman). None of these teams are flawless...

So, despite the recent embarrassment, I still believe this team is World Series bound if they can survive the last 12 days of the season (you gotta be in it, to win it).

You see, the Mets ARE the best team in the National League. I don’t think this, I know this. That’s why I haven’t been concerned throughout the season. I’ve watched the Phillies, the Padres, the Diamondbacks, the Cubs, and the Mets as a team, are better than all of them. Every team has question marks and every team has dramatic ups and downs throughout the year. Unfortunately, the best team doesn't always win, but at the end of the day there are a few things I'm sure of:

****There's only one potential posteseason NL lineup that can compare to ours, but I expect them to be watching the playoffs from home (Phillies).

****Pedro, Glavine, El Duque (if healthy) will keep us in the game against anyone in the post season.

****There’s no other NL closer I’d rather hand the ball to than Billy Wagner (34 saves and 2.38 ERA)

****The only person that can keep Jose Reyes from getting on base (and subsequently stealing 2^nd) is Jose Reyes.

****I’d let David Wright sleep with my girlfriend.

****And finally, the New York Mets will make it to the World Series…if they can only get to the postseason.


12 games. 12 days. 1 job to do. Hang on tight, it could be a bumpy ride...