Breakdown of the Mets/Nats Trade

If you’re a Mets fan, you probably fall into one of two classes right now.

1) The trade is an abomination (Kazmir/Zambrano part II) and the organization is clueless.

2) The trade might not, kinda sorta, be all that terrible, depending on how you look at it and let’s wait until Minaya is done with all moves to judge him.

One thing's for sure, I haven’t heard a single person outside of the Mets organization truly lauding the trade from the Mets' perspective, and that should speak volumes right there.

Before giving my personal final assessment I’m going to play both sides of the coin and first spin it as a positive, then look at the negatives.

The Pros:

Starting with Church–
All things considered, Ryan Church should be comparable, if not better, offensively and certainly an upgrade defensively over Lastings Milledge… for next season at least. Church was 35^th in the NL in OPS and SLG. Of the Mets regulars who had enough plate appearances to qualify, that’s good enough to place Church behind only Carlos Beltran and David Wright, despite playing in RFK, a worse hitters park than Shea and with far worse talent around him in the batting order.

Also, while Church had an unfortunate incident regarding religious beliefs, Milledge has had quite a few more incidents and personality conflicts with his teammates/management while attempting to grow up in the New York City spotlight. So in that regard, I think clubhouse/chemistry wise Church and Schneider will probably turn out to be an upgrade over L-Millz.

As for Brian Schneider -
Aside from expecting a decline as he ages, it’s tough to argue against the defensive abilities of Schneider. Even if he declines, he’s a significant upgrade over anything the Mets have had in recent history. Over the past four seasons here are Schneider’s caught stealing percentages and where he ranks in all of baseball:
2007 - 31.2% caught stealing/7^th in MLB
2006 - 30.2%/12^th
2005 - 40.0%/5^th
2004 – 50%/ 1^st

He also hasn’t had a fielding percentage worse than 99.2% since his rookie season. So, in theory, the improved defense and ability to throw runners out should help the pitching staff.

As far as his hitting goes, it’s certainly not pretty, but over the past three seasons, his OPS and SLG are significantly better against right-handed pitchers than lefties. Over the same period of time, Ramon Castro has had a propensity to mash left-handed pitching, so it might not be that terrible of a one-two punch from the 8 spot in the lineup. Furthermore, Schneider’s RBI and HR per at bat numbers are better than those of Paul Lo Duca over the past three seasons. Besides, it’s not like huge offensive production out of the 8 spot/catcher position is a necessity in order to be successful.

So, to close out the positive spin in the most drastic of ways:
In Milledge, the Mets gave up a young player with potential, but also an unproven prospect with character issues. They lost a player with questionable defensive ability, who’s struggled mightily to hit right-handed pitching, or anything not going fast and straight, to be honest. His trade value had seemingly plummeted because other teams noticed these flaws before the Mets did.

In return, they received a significant defensive upgrade at catcher (younger than their previous starter), and an upgrade both defensively and offensively in the OF for the current season.

Prospects are suspects until proven otherwise (just ask the Alex’s – Escobar and Ochoa to name a couple), and if the goal is to win now, to win this season, then this trade clearly is a good move, unless…

You Think The Glass Is Half Empty:
As bad as Milledge currently is against right-handed pitching, Church is even worse against left-handed pitching. It’s to the point where you really can’t even play him.

Last season, he batted .229 with .339 SLG and .655 OPS, compared to his numbers against righties of .287/.506/.866. The big difference between the two is that Milledge is 22, with the potential to improve drastically. At age 29, barring some unforeseen breakout season, we’re probably looking at marginal improvements for Church, at best.

Milledge may have lacked maturity and focus while struggling defensively, but at the age of 22 it should have been expected that he wouldn’t be completely polished when they threw him into the fire. Last I checked, Jose Reyes and countless others had their fair share of growing pains on the way to stardom. Is Church really going to give you THAT much more than Milledge this year? How bout for the next 5 years?

Then there’s Brian Schneider. He’s a really nice guy, like David Eckstein, but like Eckstein, he isn’t much of a ballplayer.

Saying he can’t hit is a gross understatement. He’s practically an automatic out coming off a season where he hit (cringe) .235 with an OPS of .662 and a SLG of .377. Sure, his defensive numbers were spectacular… in ’04 and ’05. The past two seasons, while still solid, he’s dropped off a bit.

Johnny Estrada on the other hand brings a much better bat to the table, and his throwing numbers weren’t terrible in ‘05/’06 (between 29-31%). In 2007, Estrada was terrible throwing guys out, but if you look at his career numbers it seems to be a mirage and the offseason surgery to remove a bone spur in his throwing elbow should get him back to where he was. Is Estrada a bit more of a risk defensively? Absolutely. Is he a phenomenal all around catcher? Of course not, but he’s probably a comparable stop gap, and did I mention the Mets acquired him for virtually nothing (Guillermo Mota)?

Lastly, let’s talk about the myth that Schneider is great at handling pitchers and calling a game. Not only have we heard from a Washington Nationals blogger on the topic, but let’s look at his CERA (Catcher's earned-run average. Earned-run average of club's pitchers with a particular catcher behind the plate).

In ’04 and ’05 he had some success with CERA’s of 3.83 and 3.88 but again, in his past two seasons we see a drastic drop off. In 2006, he was second to last among qualified catchers with a CERA of 5.28 and in 2007 he was 4^th worst with a CERA of 4.79. Naturally, there are a lot of other factors that go into handling a pitching staff and their performance (like talent for example), so I’m not going to kill him on those numbers, but to say Schneider is significantly better than the next guy isn’t really fair either. By comparison, here are Estrada and Lo Duca’s CERA’s over the past four seasons .
Estrada 04-07: 3.77, 3.92, 4.43, 4.45
Lo Duca 04-07: 3.83, 3.79, 4.31, 4.12

So, to close the case for the glass half empty folks:
The Mets gave up one of their most hyped prospects who could have filled a need position for the next several seasons (or at least been traded for something better at some point). Milledge’s quick bat and pure athleticism seemed to have him primed to develop into a premier player – one that would fit perfectly in the lineup with the other young Mets’ studs and provide a great foundation for years to come.

Even if his value had declined, it couldn’t have possibly declined to the point where the return is an aging defensive catcher who can’t hit for anything and a 29 year-old outfielder that you essentially have to platoon because - against lefties - he too is an automatic out. If we ever saw Church-Schneider-Pitcher against a lefty, we may as well concede the inning and save the energy of running in and out of the dugout, as that trio would translate into Rey Ordonez batting three consecutive times. Ok, maybe that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but you get the point.

Did I forget to touch on the fact that the Mets will have to face Milledge 18 times a year for the next 5-10 years?

Final Assessment:
My biggest problem isn’t necessarily the value of the pieces being exchanged in this particular trade, but the apparent thought process behind it (or lack thereof) and as Keith Law said in a recent chat “the mismanagement of assets” by the Mets.

Clearly the Mets’ biggest need is pitching, so the question is why do you make this move before you sort out the rotation and the bullpen? If they fail to land a front line starter, and/or improve the bullpen are they really serious contenders for a World Series title? Probably not, especially if Johan Santana heads to the Red Sox, or the Phillies and Braves improve.

So, why not give Milledge a full season to see what he’s capable of – especially if his trade value had dropped off THAT much (which I find hard to believe considering he’s only 22, showed signs of improvement, and his value was sky high just 12-18 months ago). It would make more sense to give him a shot to prove himself instead of selling low now with all the other question marks surrounding the team.

Also, rumors are that this trade had been discussed for quite some time, with Minaya reluctant to pull the trigger and part with Milledge, so what made now the right time? I doubt teams were banging down the door for Schneider and Church.

They sold low on Milledge and bought high on Church and Schneider (who the Nats overvalued). Let’s say for a second that the Mets have significant reason to believe Milledge isn’t going to pan out. Keep in mind, they’ve already told us that other teams had lost interest in him.

To me, that’s a poor reflection on the Mets organization, the past two seasons we wouldn’t trade Milledge for a high end pitcher (which we are now desperate for) and all of the sudden he’s not even a significant trading chip to keep around while we look at the various options, or consider him for the starting spot in RF? How come other teams realized this before the people watching him day in and day out? Disappointing to say the least.

After the last two seasons, it wouldn’t be fair to totally disregard the pressure the Wilpon’s and Minaya are under to win now, and I think this move clearly illustrates that line of thought.

I’m going to reserve complete judgment until the rest of the moves are made, because acquiring a legit starter or two and improving the bullpen would make this team a serious contender and thus this trade could be more justified as well. I’m more upset with how/when it happened and how it makes me worry about the front office, than the fact that Milledge may have been undervalued a bit (but not nearly as much as most of the die-hard Mets fans would have you believe – this is not Kazmir for Zambrano)

In the meantime, I’m disappointed to see Thrilledge go as I hoped he’d mature into a perfect fit for this Mets team and become a fan favorite for years to come. But, so is the game…good Luck in Washington, I’ll be rooting for you – at least for 144 games of the year or so.

Chambers to Chargers

When rumors of Chris Chambers being on the trading block surfaced in the preseason Durden and I discussed possible destinations that might make sense.

There were a handful of teams that could have benefitted from acquiring Chambers (Vikings, Chiefs, etc…), but we settled on the Chargers being the logical choice for a plethora of reasons. So, while I’m surprised at when the deal went down, I’m not exactly shocked that it happened.

Despite statements from the organization saying otherwise, barring an extremely successful season by him and the Dolphins it was clear that this was going to be Chambers’ last season in Miami.

I’ve long been a Chambers apologist, expected big things from him, and was thrilled when they locked him up with a long term deal. Unfortunately, the truth is he wasn’t living up to his price tag and it was time for the Dolphins to cut him lose.

He’ll be 30 next year and Chambers has never put together a full season since being drafted in 2001. Even his best year (2005: 82 catches, 1118 yards, 11 TDs) was completely skewed by a ridiculous last 6 games (43 catches, 620 yards, 6 TDs). Aside from that he never surpassed 1000 yards despite being one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL.

In fairness to Chambers, everyone should be well aware of the difficulties he faced on lousy Dolphin teams. New head coaches, rotating coordinators and WR coaches, countless double teams, terrible supporting casts (James McKnight, Derrius Thompson, Dedric Ward, David Boston, to name a few), and one subpar QB after another brought in to over throw and under throw him several times a game. And while he’s had his fair share of inexcusable drops, he’s also made quite a few spectacular catches...he'll literally (and by literally I mean figuritively) jump out of the stadium and remarkably, ALWAYS comes down in bounds.


In the end, I think this is one of those rare trades that seems perfect for both teams. Chambers has the opportunity to take the Charger offense to a whole new level. Dolphin fans have always thought he’d make a superb number 2 receiver, which is essentially what he’ll be with Gates getting most of the attention. He gives Rivers another legitimate veteran option and should help to move the chains without having to completely burn out LDT by the time the postseason rolls around. And if the opposing team sleeps on him, he can still beat them deep, or even pull off a big run on an end around/reverse.


The addition of Chambers puts the Chargers offense a notch below the elites (New England, Indy) and right with the Cowboys. They’ve got the offensive line, and weapons all over the place. It’s up to the coaching staff to turn ‘em loose and it’s up to Rivers to execute – he’s obviously the key to it all. If that happens, and I think it will, we’ll have another serious contender in the AFC by seasons end.

Meanwhile, the 0-6 Dolphins were clearly going nowhere. They already drafted Chambers' replacement in the Ginn Family, but need to get younger and better (particularly on defense), so the draft pick makes sense. Chambers’ time had come and gone and his value wasn’t going to get any higher over the course of the season. At one point there were some pundits saying he’d be traded for a fourth rounder, or possibly released outright. So, to get back the 2nd rounder they used on him, 6 years after the fact, is not bad considering Chris Chambers was not going to be the guy to turn the team around over the last two+ seasons of his contract.

Now, they’ll get a good look at Ted Ginn and Derek Hagan, and they added another first day draft pick. It’s no secret that success in the NFL comes from nailing your draft picks and keeping them with you. Well, that and cheating. But since the NFL has cracked down on cheating, and Shula is no longer on the rules committee the Dolphins have to try the draft pick route.

Thanks to the Ricky Williams trade, as well as a few other poor decisions (Feeley, Culpepper, etc…), the Dolphins had been light on draft picks in recent history. So the demise shouldn’t come as a total shock. When you lose guys to free agency, retirement, suspension, injuries, and just plain get older without any upper echelon young talent to replace them, you’re going to struggle. This regime actually seems to get that, and is trying to build through the draft. All TEN draft picks made the roster and quite a few have shown some potential. You’d have to go back almost ten years for the last time the Dolphins even had that many picks, let alone all of them making the roster.

It’s way too early to know how long it will take to turn around the franchise but we should get a better idea by the end of the season just by taking a closer look at the recent draft picks. If Mueller and Cameron can prove to be solid talent evaluators then this thing could get turned around rather quickly.

The good: Vernon Carey has finally come around, Ronnie Brown has proven to the masses what I already knew, Channing Crowder should be a staple of the defense for years to come, Samson Satele has looked solid in his debut season. You know things aren't great when a punter is listed under “the good”, but Brandon Fields has a leg on him and looks like he should be pretty good. Of course, they let Donnie Jones go, who’s been nothing short of the best.

The bad: Jason Allen has been given his last chance and will be out the door if he doesn’t show anything at FS the rest of the way. Travis Daniels is in the same boat as Jason Allen, and it’s sinking fast. Matt Roth has shown his motor, but nothing else. If he can’t find ways to get to the QB with Jason Taylor opposite him, there’s reason for concern. Hopefully increased playing time will do wonders for Derek Hagan. Because so far all we know is he’s not that fast, his routes are iffy, and he has hands like feet, but other than that he’s great…

The ugly: Only one draft pick from the years prior to 2004 is still on the Dolphins roster (6th round pick in 2003, Yeremiah Bell, and he’s never made it through a season healthy).

The unknowns:
There are others, but the most important ones are…

John Beck – I feel good about Beck being successful, unfortunately if we get to see him at all this year it will be against the tough part of the Dolphins' schedule. It will be interesting to see how Cameron handles him.

The Ginn Family – The last couple weeks we saw why we were going to enjoy watching this kid return kicks. Now, if only we could eliminate the holding penalties so they don’t get called back. He’s also shown some big play potential in the passing game. I’m less down on him than I was prior to the draft (I wanted Willis, would have settled for Okoye), but he still has quite a bit to prove.

Rodrique Wright – I liked him in college and thought his shoulder injury was a blessing in disguise for the Dolphins. Hopefully, he turns out to be a 7th round steal. He’s shown some flashes, but has a ways to go.

Lorenzo Booker – Reports of his greatness during camp appear to be exaggerated as he hasn’t been awarded a chance to prove himself on Sundays despite the Dolphins’ struggles. Even so, the praise was coming from coaches, veterans, media, pretty much anyone that caught a glimpse. So, there might be something there. Best case scenario: Warrick Dunn

Glenn Dorsey – Whoops, I’m getting ahead of myself here.


So, for all the criticizing that's been handed down over the last few years to the Dolphins front office (and rightfully so), it appears they got this one right.

I'm a Chambers supporter and I hope he finds success in San Diego. In fact, I'll be sporting his Miami Jersey when i head to the Chargers/Ravens game next month. At the same time, this is a move the Dolphins had to make, so I applaud and respect that they actually pulled the trigger. Now, let's hope they grab the right guy in next years draft.

Yep, with 10 games to play in this season I'm already pondering next season's draft. Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2007 Miami Football Dolphins!

One for the road...