Week 11 Spread 'em: The IN-N-OUT Challenge

Before we get to the picks there’s some business to take care of.

First off, my desktop is back up and running so you will see more frequent posts around here. I apologize for slacking off while it was in the shop and I’ll try to make up for it over the next few weeks. That being said, if anyone out there is interested in coming aboard, writing for TPS and having your opinions read by at least tens of people, shoot me an email and we’ll set something up.

Also, if you can’t get enough of me, I recently stumbled across a great opportunity and reached an agreement with Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog (after a short trial period, he offered to let me write for free and I eagerly accepted) to join as a beat blogger during the hot stove season and hopefully well into the future.

…Now back to your regularly scheduled column…

Durden returns from Atlantic City in one piece which has led to an extra long post as I apparently disregarded the fact that he'd be back and continued to write a short novel for several games. But where else can you get a combined 600 words or so on that enticing Dolphins/Eagles matchup!

Last week, I was above .500 for the 4^th consecutive week and gained another game on Durden to cut his lead to 7 cheeseburgers. That should mean this will be a particularly disappointing one as he's scheduled to fly out here for the Ravens game Thanksgiving weekend where I’ll have to settle up what’s owed at the time. But, with 7 games different this week, I do have slim hope to get back to even just in time. So, on to the picks.

Click Clack.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars -3
Mazzone: Before the 2006 draft there was a lot of talk that Antonio Cromartie would drop way down the draft boards due to being out of football for a year after a torn ACL. Prior to the draft, I was praying for him to fall so the Dolphins (who were, and still are in desperate need of DB’s) could snag him in the 3^rd round.

Unfortunately, just 3 picks after Miami took Jason Allen at pick 16 in the first round, the Chargers ignored the expert’s warnings and picked based on what they saw of Cromartie prior to his injury, and at his pre draft workout. Smart move – aside from the highlight reel plays in recent weeks, he’s just an incredible athlete with the perfect physical attributes to be a successful CB. As long as he’s not a complete idiot, he should progress into a top CB.

The cross country flight, David Garrard’s return to the lineup, and the win over the Titans last week make this pick tough, but I still like the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers +3

Durden: While it’s tough for me to forget Jacksonville’s loss two weeks ago against the Saints, it’s even more difficult for me to forget San Diego’s loss two weeks ago against Adrian Peterson. Of course, the Jags also followed it up with an impressive win vs the Titans, while the Chargers barely beat a banged up Colts team. When you only win by two at home, despite intercepting the opposing QB six times and getting two special teams TDs, you didn’t win the game. The other team lost it.
Pick: Jaguars -3

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts -14.5
Mazzone: I’ve been wavering between two schools of thought on this one. The first: Peyton without Dallas Clark, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, and a couple key pieces of the offensive line becomes human, and the loss of Dwight Freeney certainly won’t help matters, making 14.5 points A LOT to give.

The other side is that the Colts should have won on the road against the Chargers, despite the special teams giving away a boatload of points and Peyton throwing six INTs. Neither of which will come close to happening again. So, therefore they should have no problem covering against the Brodie Croyle led Chiefs, right?
Pick: Colts -14.5

Durden: Peyton proved against the Pats that he clearly STILL can not win a big game, and we saw his resulting hangover last week. I don’t want to hear about how he’s missing multiple offensive tackles and only has one healthy receiver, because it’s his job to figure out how to best use the strengths of Bryan Fletcher and Craven Moorehead. However, I do think the Colts will win in spite of all of Manning’s inadequacies, I’m just not sure they’ll cover.

Brodie Croyle does face a daunting task in his first game as a starter, when you consider they’re traveling to Indy and will have to deal with all the fake noise. Unfortunately for them, the Patriots must have the best evidence and tapes to prove noise-gate, but I’m guessing they’re refusing to submit it to the league. Therefore, I expect the Chiefs to come in with a very conservative game plan, and keep this one close enough.
Pick: Chiefs +14.5


Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings -5.5
Mazzone: From the meaningless but really fun stat department, I give you this gem. Over the last 12 seasons, scorned QB’s are an astounding 40-7 in games against their former teams. Daunte is likely getting the nod this week in Minnesota, and they won’t have to face Adrian Peterson – so that bodes well for the Raiders. But, Chester Taylor is no slouch and should be able to produce behind that offensive line against one of the league’s worst run defenses. I also like the VIkes defense to rattle Culpepper and take a fumble or pick to the house. Daunte got his revenge against the Dolphins earlier this year, he’ll have to settle for that.
Pick: MIN -5.5

Durden: This Raiders team continues to just hang in games, and I don’t see why this game will be any different. As for Minnesota, I probably won’t have very much to say about the Vikings until Adrian Peterson returns. They’re terrible, but it appears they’re at least having a good time and it seems pretty harmless to me. Hey, if you can’t fly prostitutes in from around the country to perform sex acts on a boat, what can you do??
Pick: Raiders +5.5


Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens +3
Mazzone: Durden is excited about McNair all but admitting he’s got nothing left and is a big reason for the Ravens’ struggles. While I agree, he’s been finished for awhile, I also think the Ravens have issues beyond the QB position. Home underdogs to the Browns? The Browns hanging with the Steelers last week was a mirage (see below), but the times they are a changin’…
Pick: Browns -3

Durden: I’ve always said that if the Ravens are to go 1-15, the game they HAVE to win (for me), is the home game vs the Browns. There is reason to be slightly optimistic too, as Stevie Wonder was finally demoted due to an “injury” to his non-throwing shoulder. That’s funny because not only is Kurt Warner playing with a similar injury, but can anyone even tell which shoulder is McNair’s “throwing” shoulder at this point?? However, there’s really not reason for even the biggest fan to have faith at this point, until they show even the slightest signs of life. As much as I hate to admit it, these are not last year’s Browns.

Promoting Kyle Boller is a decision that was well overdue, and yet it’s not likely to make a significant difference given the current injury situation. The Ravens definitely are not the only team that has suffered multiple injuries to key players, but coming into this season, they simply were not prepared to handle that and it’s showing. The opening-night secondary of Rolle, cornerback Chris McAlister, free safety Ed Reed and strong safety Dawan Landry has not started since Sept. 16 against the New York Jets. That’s a big problem against Cleveland, who has excelled passing the ball this season.

It’s also unfortunate that the Ravens now lost Demetrius Williams to an injury, as Boller could actually reach him down the field, though it may not have mattered with the way Billick’s mismanaged the offense.

If I could be wrong about any one pick this year, I hope it’s this one.
Pick: Browns -3

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets +9.5
Mazzone: The Steelers were on the receiving end of the “eff you, Madden game” last week…and won. To recap: The Browns totaled just 163 yards of offense and 76 of those came on their longest drive of the season and first of the game (yep, that means they had 87 yards of offense during the remaining 51 minutes of the game and still scored 28 points). Pittsburgh fell behind early, 21-6, thanks in part to a big kick return, a red zone interception, this RIDICULOUS TD catch by Braylon Edwards, and the aforementioned drive that the Browns probably won’t duplicate again for the rest of the year.

Even so, the Steelers battled back with 18 unanswered points and managed to take the lead in the fourth quarter 24-21, at least for a second anyway. Then, Joshua Cribbs (who tallied over 200 return yards ) took the ensuing kick to the house, which he somehow managed to pick up at the goal-line, hop over and slide by five would be tacklers inside his own five yard line, keep his balance and stay in-bounds despite sprinting along the sideline and having his shoulder nearly ripped off. That’s the point I would have thrown the controller.

Only two things kept the Browns from miraculously finishing off the eff you game. A holding call on another nice Cribbs return which would have put them in great shape for a potential game winning FG drive, and Phil Dawson coming up just short on the eventual 52 yard attempt.

Oh yea, something about the Jets…they suck.
Pick: Steely McBeam -9.5

Durden: My only real thought about this game, is how Pittsburgh isn’t favored by double digits. Mangini is proving to be more Mangina than Mangenius, and I don’t think the bye week or home-field advantage will be of much help on Sunday.
Pick: Steelers -9.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons +3
Mazzone: A Falcons win would put them a game out of first. I’ll have none of that. The Bucs remaining schedule should be just bad enough to win them the division and earn them the right to be double digit underdogs against their first round playoff opponent.
Pick: Bucs -3

Durden: This one seems fairly simple. While Atlanta coming off consecutive victories would appear to be impressive, it’s been far from convincing against two of the league’s worst teams right now. Tampa Bay will not only be well prepared for this game, but they’re better on both sides of the ball, than anything Atlanta’s seen in about a month.
Pick: Bucs -3

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals -3
Music is my boyfriend
Music is my girlfriend

Music is my dead end
Music is my imaginary friend

Music is my brother
Music is my great-grand-daughter

Music is my sister
Music is my favorite mistress

Music is my beach house
Music is my hometown
Music is my king-size bed
Music is my hot hot bath
Music is my hot hot sex
Music is my back rub

Music is where I'd like you to touch.

Enjoy that for the rest of your day and all weekend.
Pick: Bengals -3

Durden: I didn’t think the Lions would struggle against the Cards last week, let alone lose, so I was definitely impressed by Arizona’s win. That’s more than enough for me to pick them against a Bengals team that is in really bad shape. Let’s just say their win last week against the Ravens was not your typical, 21-7 victory.
Pick: Cardinals +3


Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles -10
Mazzone: It was a tough loss to the Bills, but you can’t blame Miami for looking ahead to the Eagles.

The John Beck Era is officially upon us and Ricky Williams is back – it doesn’t get much more exciting for the winless Dolphins! I am genuinely excited to get a look at Beck, although I’m not sure I would have made his first games AT Philly and Monday Night AT Pittsburgh. If Cam Cam was going to protect him this long, why throw him to those wolves now? Curious decision (I would have started him last week – Bills at home, or two weeks from now- Jets at home), but I’m anxious to see what he’s got, so let's do it.

As for Ricky’s return (I’ve always been and will always be Pro- Ricky Williams), I’m trying to figure out who would trade for him and what kind of value he’d have since there’s no logical reason for the Dolphins to hang onto him longer than the rest of this season to showcase him.

Maybe the Packers after making a run this year think they are a RB away and Favre talks them into it? Though completely unreasonable, it’d be really fun if he went to any of the following:

Eagles – McNabb heading out the door, and the fans booing the decision to draft Donovan over Ricky, it’d be a nice happy ending
Bears – Cedric Benson would probably cry
Denver – where they support his habits

Who am I kidding? He’ll probably end up with the Patriots for a fourth round pick and run for 2500 yards.

As for this week, sorry Eagles fans, but the Dolphins are the best 0-9 team in the NFL right now and John Beck has never lost his first ever NFL game.
Pick: Miami +10

Durden: I’m not big on moral victories, but I would think the Dolphins must draw some inspiration from at least remaining competitive, despite not having won a game yet. In fact, I was set to pick Miami to cover this week until they made the switch at QB to John Beck. I’m just not sure Beck’s first NFL action should’ve come on the road, against the Eagles and their blitz-happy defense, even if he is the league’s oldest rookie QB I can remember since Chris Weinke.

I was still a little unsure though, I was looking for some reassurance and definitely did not come across anything helpful. Instead, I came across a few of good quotes that tell me neither team really deserves to be favored by 10.

First, Eagles’ TE LJ Smith, what are your thoughts going into this game? "Right now I'm looking at being on another team," said Smith, Wow, OK. How about you, Joey Porter? You’re probably not qualified to be speaking on the Ricky Williams situation, having just joined the team, but what do you think since you’ll just tell us anyways? "Yeah, I would. We're 0-9," linebacker Joey Porter told the Miami Herald. "I'd welcome bin Laden if he could run the ball like Ricky did." Finally, John Madden, anything we should know about Philadelphia that we may not already know? “Rocky has muscles in places you don’t have muscles.” –John Madden

Anyway, I’m going to stick with Philly, mainly because Mazzone will be hosting my trip to Cali next week and this should subtract a burger in the standings.
Pick: Eagles -10

*Editors Note: I don’t want your stinkin’ charity, beotch! Besides, everyone knows there’s no way in hell you’d concede an IN-N-OUT cheeseburger if you really felt that way about the game.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills +16
Mazzone: JP Losman and Dwayne Wright will be in the backfield for the Bills who are fresh off their dominating three point escape in Miami. Wright was the Bills 4^th round pick (111^th overall) out of Fresno State where he was second team ALL-WAC in 2006 . That’s all I know about him, because that’s all that’s really on his Wikipedia page. The line could be 30, and I’d be hard pressed to find a good reason take the Bills.
Pick: Patriots -16

Durden: The only concern here is the possibility of New England being a little quicker to take their foot off the accelerator, now that they have a two game lead in the AFC. Otherwise, how can you like the Bills to keep this close (especially without Marshawn Lynch), while the Patriots are coming off a bye?
Pick: Patriots -16


Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys -10.5
Mazzone: Big win for Big D last week that solidifies their hold on the NFC East and now they come back to three straight home games that should continue to pad their lead, starting with the Redskins. I can’t really decide how to feel about the ‘skins, which makes sense since they’re about a .500 team and should finish that way. I like the Cowboys to win and for it to feel like a comfortable win, but think the Redskins get a meaningless score late in the game for the cover.
Pick: Redskins +10.5

Durden: The only real hope Washington has in this game, is overconfidence on Dallas’ part after last week’s big victory. Clinton Portis has been a man possessed of late, but it may not matter if the Cowboys come out strong against a Washington secondary that should be overwhelmed without Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers. I think that’s a highly likely scenario, yet even if it doesn’t play out that way, the Redskins will find that running against Dallas is far tougher than running against Philly or the Jets.
Pick: Cowboys -10.5

New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans -1
Mazzone: Just when I thought the Saints were headed for the playoffs, they fall flat on their face at home against the Rams. That’s completely unacceptable and warrants an automatic benching in my weekly picks, regardless of the opponent.

Besides, the Texans get Andre Johnson back and though he’s not 100 percent, that Saints secondary couldn’t stop him at 50%, let’s take a look at WR’s numbers against New Orleans this year.

Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison: 198 yards 3 TDs
Joey Galloway/Ike Hilliard: 186 yards, 2 TDs
Brandon Jones/Roydell Williams: 110 yards, TD (also Vince Young’s only game with two TD passes)
Steve Smith/Keary Colbert: 121 Yards, TD
Bobby Engram/Ben Obamanu/Nate Burleson: 255 yards, 2 TDs
Roddy White/Michael Jenkins: 179 yards, TD
Reggie Williams/John Broussard: 199 yards, TD
Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce: 186 yards, TD

They did sorta shut down the 49ers “passing game”, if you can call it that. Vernon Davis had 71 yards and a TD, but no receiver (the likes of Billy Gilmore and Arnaz Battle) had more than 25 yards.

If you’re still not getting the hint, start Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, and any other Texan that’s eligible to start at WR/TE for your fantasy teams this week.
Pick: Texans -1

Durden: Anyone else surprised that ESPN hasn’t done more to lamely spin this as Reggie Bush vs Mario Williams? Well, as promised a couple of weeks ago, the success the Saints were enjoying was indeed a product of its schedule. The problem here is that I have no idea what to make of the Texans right now. While I think New Orleans will definitely put up at least 20 points, Houston could prevail in a shootout or get blown out, and neither outcome would surprise me. Since I’m already bracing for the “Reggie Bush’s Eff You Game to Houston,” I’ll take New Orleans.
Pick: Saints +1


Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers -9.5
Mazzone: I wish this were true. Anyway...I’m borrowing Durden’s Brett Favre Slurping Award this week and handing it out to Brad Evans over at Yahoo! - “Because Brett Favre wears comfortable jeans, never has heartburn and sports a Bowflex-chiseled body, it's safe to assume he'll average close to 300 yards and two touchdowns per game during the most crucial weeks of the season.”
Pick: Packers -9.5

Durden: Carolina’s another team I have almost no desire to talk about, nor do I really care to figure out how they got so bad, so fast. I know it’s tough to overcome the Vinny Carr Experiment at QB, but it’s not like anyone was really enamored with Delhomme coming into the season. To make matters worse, Steve Smith hasn’t practiced yet this week and he’s probably the only guy for Carolina who still gives a shit.
Pick: Packers -9.5

New York Giants @ Detroit Lions +3
Mazzone: Detroit got brought back down to earth last week and now they have a difficult schedule the rest of the way. I don’t think the Lions know this game is more important for them than the Giants, and they are probably looking forward to the Favre matchup on Thanksgiving. I think Eli Manning is in for a big day and the Giants bounce back nicely.
Pick: Giants -3

Durden: I know Detroit’s defense has overachieved thus far this season, but their offense is what had me believing coming into the season and it’s been pretty mediocre. As I mentioned before, their loss to Arizona was surprising and I’m going to give the edge to New York in this game. There’s quite a bit I’m not sure about, but I know the Lions are very good at allowing Kitna to get sacked, and the Giants are equally adept at sacking opposing QBs.
Pick: Giants -3

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers +2.5
Mazzone: Ever get that creepy Déjà vu feeling? San Francisco and Miami appear to be headed for 1-2 draft position again (as in 2005), though the Dolphins have the inside track on the first pick this time. Remember when the Niners were everyone’s bandwagon pick this year, what happened to that? Rams were unlucky the first time these two met, it won’t happen again.
Pick: Rams -2.5

Durden: Hey, where are all those Steven Jackson commercials I was complaining about earlier this season? The man’s throwing TDs now!
Pick: Rams -2.5

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5
Mazzone: The Bears are Bringin’ Sexy Back, so the choice here is obvious.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5

Durden: Given their inconsistent nature, it pains me to take Seattle in consecutive weeks but even when the Seahawks try to give this game away, I don’t see the Bears taking it. This win will help Seattle in a few weeks as they back into the playoffs, while Arizona ultimately decides they’d rather not play more than 16 games.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5


Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos -2
Mazzone: Vince Young matches up real well with the Broncos as they are a great team to hand the ball off against and not pass at all (Broncos defense is tied with Oakland for last in yards allowed per carry at 4.8).

The Titans are in the top five in both stopping the run and running the football. It should be the perfect recipe for success against this Denver team, but I can’t help but think back to how poorly the defense played a week ago without Albert Haynesworth (166 rushing yards and 3 TDs allowed) and how easy that will make things for Jay Cutler and the Broncos if they can run the ball.
Pick: Broncos -2

Durden: Denver is like Seattle to me, in that I feel both teams are better on paper, and both frustrate me as they insist on underachieving. Therefore, I probably shouldn’t be too surprised that I find myself picking Denver to come out with another win this week as well. Bare with me here, but could it be that it’s actually Albert Haynesworth who just wins football games? It appears he’ll be missing another game for the Titans who will miss him again, and his ability to kickstart the team.
Pick: Broncos -2

If you haven't seen the Cal Marching Band's tribute to video games (tetris, mario bros, zelda, contra, etc...), here it is.



And just because I felt like adding a third video, completely unrelated to anything...

Say Anything - Wow, I Can Get Sexual Too

Week 10 Picks: Spread 'em the In-N-Out Challenge

There was no shortage of entertainment from the National Football League last week. Points all over the place, records being set, big plays, fun story lines, and the Super Bowl actually lived up to its hype (with Peyton proving he still can't win the big one).

Oddly enough, the best week of the football season didn't involve the Rams, Dolphins or Bears. I was over .500 for the third consecutive week and gained 2 games on Durden (66-57-7). I'm now trailing by 8 cheeseburgers.

This week gives us two things I never thought we'd see. 1) Durden and I have an unprecedented 12 games picked differently - which probably doesn't bode well for me considering our current records. 2) Later in the column, I'll present to you the black Trent Dilfer, though you can probably guess who it is.

Before we get to the picks it should be noted that Durden phoned his picks in this week, literally - via drunken text message from Atlantic City. He'll be back in full capacity next week, assuming he makes it home alive. I'm taking all sorts of prop bets on Durden's weekend experience, so email me if you want in.

Alright, onto the picks.

Click Clack.


STL @ NO -12
Mazzone: I should have known better than to count out any team in the NFC, even after starting 0-4. There’s no reason to think the Saints can’t win the pathetic NFC South and there’s no reason they shouldn’t roll over the Rams – who continue to lose key players to injury at an alarming rate. The latest to go down: Leonard Little (done for the season), Richie Incognito (done for the season), Steven Jackson for the 2nd time (done until he’s tackled again).

Also, if you’re a Saints fan that’s trying to talk yourself into this being a real turnaround rather than a product of the schedule, you can look no further than the offensive line and Drew Brees. In the first four losses, Brees had 11 turnovers, 929 yards, and 1 touchdown. In the last four wins, the Saints are averaging over 104 yards rushing a game, Brees has just 2 turnovers, 1246 yards, 11 TDs, and has only been sacked once – gaudy numbers regardless of the opponents.
Pick: Saints -12
Durden Pick: Rams +12


BUF @ MIA +3
Mazzone: For some reason, Cleo Lemon is still starting, but now he’s splitting reps with John Beck in practice, so hopefully Beck will get the nod soon. After picking apart the Bengals, the Bills should feel confident heading into Miami to face an equally atrocious defense. Marshawn Lynch’s career game was overshadowed by some guy in Minnesota, but Miami is known for making things easy on the RBs, so Lynch could do it again. Lee Evans typically destroys the Dolphins as well, and J.P. Losman knows how to throw the ball in his general direction more often than not.

The positive news for the Dolphins is that the Bills offensive line doesn’t allow many sacks which is good because the Dolphins don’t have a pass rush anyway so they can just abandon it all together and drop everyone in coverage on passing downs. Buffalo is a Cowboys miracle comeback away from 5-3 and being taken seriously in the playoff race, that’s disturbing and it’ll be nice for the Dolphins to put them back in their place with the rest of the AFC East teams not named the Patriots.
Pick: Miami Football Dolphins +3
Durden Pick: Bills -3


JAC @ TEN -4
Mazzone: These two teams are nearly identical in terms of philosophy. They’re going to try and beat you running the ball and playing defense while the passing game is almost non-existent. If all goes according to plan, this game should be low scoring and, barring overtime, it should finish long before the rest of the early games. If the Titans win, they should be able to book their playoff tickets as the rest of their schedule is pretty favorable.

I feel like anything not associated with the Patriots has flown under the radar this season, like how great the Titans and Steelers defenses have been. They may not be exactly on par with the greatest ever, but also not terribly far from the 2000 Ravens. Look for yourself and let’s get the “Vince Young is the black Trent Dilfer” bandwagon fired up.

Titans 2007 projected totals are in blue, 2000 Raven totals are in purple, Steelers 2007 projections are in black:

Passing Yards Allowed: 3276, 3175, 2588
Rushing Yards Allowed: 1056, 970, 1216
Interceptions: 26, 23, 14
Sacks: 44, 35, 50
Record: 12-4, 12-4 (Super Bowl Champs), 12-4

Here’s where the Ravens separate themselves:
Fumble Recovered: 14, 26, 18
Points: 248, 165 (least in NFL history), 196

Still impressive, and some year the Titans might even get Pac Man Jones back to boost the defense and special teams.

Just for fun:
Vince Young 2007 Projections, 2000 Dilfer:
Completion %: 61.6, 59.3
Interceptions: 16, 11
Total TDs: 10, 12
Fumbles/Lost: 8/2, 8/2
Total Yards (rushing + passing) per game: 145.7, 140.3
Sacks: 20, 23

Oh right, this is a picks column. Let’s go with a repeat of week 1 - 13-10 in favor of the black Trent Dilfer, Jags barely cover.
Pick: Jags +4
Durden Pick: Titans -4


CLE @ PIT -9.5
Mazzone: Aside from the Pats is there another team that would be favored by 9.5 or more two weeks in a row against the next best teams in their division? As mentioned above, the Steelers defense has been outstanding, but Ben Roethlisberger is not Trent Dilfer or Vince Young. Nobody will give it serious thought until it rolls around and the Steelers are 10-2 or 9-3, but there’s reason to believe they can give New England a run for their money in week 14. We talked about the D, and they are currently outscoring their opponents by about 16 a game, whereas NE is at 23 a game. The Steelers are a few garbage time “eff you” TDs away from being right with ‘em.

As for this week, if you hadn’t guessed already, I think the Steelers should win comfortably.
Pick: McBeams -9.5
Durden Pick: Steelers -9.5


PHI @ WAS -3
Mazzone: McNabb usually comes out on fire after he throws a pity party for himself (as he did earlier this week) and since he’s in a more friendly environment than the Linc, I’m going with the Eagles.
Pick: Eagles +3
Durden Pick: Redskins -3


ATL @ CAR -4
Mazzone: Let’s be honest, you’re only betting on this game if you routinely bet on every single game, and even then you’re still not going to watch any of it. DeShaun Foster destroys the Falcons, so it shouldn’t matter if Matt Moore (who?) or Vinny Testaverde are at QB. If David Carr plays though… go with the Falcons. Wow, what a trio, my head is spinning just thinking about those guys.

Anyway, yes, I just endorsed Matt Moore over David Carr and I’m pretty sure I’ve never seen Matt Moore throw a football…and now I’m picking his team to cover against Joey Harrington, and I feel confident about it.
Pick: Panthers -4
Durden Pick: Atlanta +4


DEN @ KC -3
Mazzone: It’s tough not to root for a guy like Priest Holmes, especially when it’s so easy to root against Larry Johnson. With Priest coming back this week, I’m reminded of my favorite Denver/KC game in recent memory. It wasn’t really Denver/KC so much as Quentin Griffin against Priest Holmes.

They were ripping off ridiculous run after ridiculous run and I had both of them starting in a fantasy league that awarded each weekly winner with a big screen TV from Best Buy. I was giddy throughout the game, only to come up just short of winning as I didn’t have the top QB for the week by just a couple points.

Of course, that was week 1, and I never sniffed the top of the standings the rest of the way. I finally had to settle for buying a big screen on my own 3 years later. It’s still fun, but not as much as if it were free. In remembrance of that game, I’m going with Denver 34 – Kansas City 24, with Priest and Selvyn Young combining for 5 tds and 300+ rushing yards.
Pick: Broncos +3
Durden Pick: KC -3


MIN @ GB -6
Mazzone: I guess you could say this about a few teams, but Minnesota is a serviceable quarterback (Donovan McNabb next year?) away from being a legitimate playoff team, and that’s despite wasting a pick on Troy Williamson. We know about Adrian Peterson, the offensive line, and the run defense, but Sidney Rice is legit too (you’d see that if they had a QB). The pass defense has been among the worst in yards allowed, but that’s partially because teams know they can’t run so they’re throwing 41 times a game against the Vikes, that’s tops in the NFL. They have some talent in the secondary and are middle of the pack in yards allowed per passing attempt.

That being said, Favre is playing in the house that Favre built with his smile, gunslinger mentality and child-like love for the game, so he should be able to do to them what Philip Rivers couldn’t. Fortunately for me, I don’t care about any of that and am blinded by my season-long man crush on Adrian Peterson where I drafted him in my fantasy league and then touted him as rookie of the year before he took a hand-off (everyone forgets Adrian Peterson was NFL ready three years ago). And now I’m swiping this from the guys at Kissing Suzy Kolber because I couldn't say it better myself.

KSK Reader Gavin B. writes:

I nominate the following name changes:

Adrian Peterson is no longer Purple Jesus, he's just plain old Jesus.

Jesus (the "son of God" Jesus) is now to be called "Carpenter Jesus."

Make it so.

Pick: Vikings +6
Durden Pick: Green Bay -6


CIN @ BAL -4
Mazzone: The Bengals are terrible, but the offense still looks good on paper at least. The Ravens defense is no longer good enough to shut teams out but the offense is still awful and banged up to the point where I’m not sure they can score 14 points. Give me the points, I guess.
Pick: Bengals +4
Durden Pick: Ravens -4


DET @ ARI -1
Mazzone: Everyone probably loves Detroit here, but I feel good about a let-down game from the Lions, combined with a bounce back game for the Cards. If that comes through, then the Lions might be hard pressed to reach Kitna’s 10 win prognostication.

The remaining schedule is about as tough as an NFC North team’s schedule can be (NYG, GB, @MIN, DAL, @SD, KC, @GB). Four wins out of that group could be difficult, but I doubt the Lions are aware of that, so I expect them to downplay the Cardinals and come out flat after their demolition of the Broncos. The good news for Detroit is that there’s no way in hell that they’ll NEED 10 wins to make the postseason in the NFC.
Pick: Cardinals -1
Durden Pick: Lions +1


CHI @ OAK +3.5
Mazzone: The Bears give up 131 rushing yards per game and the Raiders are fourth in the league with 140 rushing yards per game (behind Adrian Peterson, Willie Parker, and whoever the Titans feel like handing it off to that week). It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know what Lane Kiffin should plan to do. Which is good, because Lovie Smith is no rocket scientist. The bottom line is that I still can’t believe the Bears are giving points on the road to any team that’s not winless.
Pick: Raiders +3.5
Durden Pick: Bears -3.5


DAL @ NYG +1
Mazzone: I guess it’s time to put my reader’s money where my mouth is. In the week 4 picks, I took the Giants over the Eagles and mentioned 6-2 going into the bye was a possibility. In week 7, I upped the ante saying they’d be one of the top two teams in the NFC and you’d hear some realistic Super Bowl talk in the near future.

The Giants two losses came to the Packers and Cowboys, arguably the best teams in the NFC, but that was back when the Giants were in shambles and there was a possibility of having a Derrick Ward/Jared Lorenzen backfield for several weeks. This is a different Giants team, one that’s certainly more dangerous than the Packers. Unfortunately for the G-Men, the Cowboys aren’t exactly ripe for the picking. The Giants are going to have to earn every bit of this one.
Pick: Giants +1
Durden Pick: Cowboys -1


IND @ SD +3.5
Mazzone: I was all set to pick the Chargers here, and then Luis Castillo had to go and get hurt and the Colts had to go and lose to the Patriots. Ah, screw it, I’m still going with the Chargers. Might even have to snag a ticket and walk across the street to enjoy it in person. The Chargers are significantly better at home than on the road and they match up pretty well with the Colts, assuming Rivers doesn’t duplicate the debacle that took place in Minnesota. This is a much bigger game for San Diego than Indianapolis, let's see if it plays out as such or if the Colts are jerks and take out their frustrations from a week ago on the poor city ravaged by wild fires.
Pick: Chargers +3.5
Durden Pick: Colts -3.5


SF @ SEA -10
Mazzone: I can’t think of a single reason why the schedule makers thought this was a good idea for prime time. Oh well, I’m really looking forward to that Niners/Rams matchup next week – the Niners should be too since they’re going to lose this one 37-6.
Pick: Seahawks -10
Durden Pick: Seahawks -10

Vegas Flexes its Muscles (week 3 roundup)

I’m told the house always wins. And unless you’re a fan of heart attacks, today was great reinforcement for why you shouldn’t bet on sports. Here’s a recap of some of the day’s biggest gambling events, before getting into some news and notes around the league.

Jacksonville 23 – Denver 14:
This game had to be responsible for at least one gambling related death today. The over/under ranged from 36 - 37.5 points depending on where you place your bets. The score was 20-14 with over 12 minutes to play. Those with the over were feeling great. That was until the Jags put together a 6 minute drive only to see Maurice Jones-Drew fumble at the Denver 2 yard line. All of the sudden those with the under were alive again and those with the over were sweating. Denver couldn’t get the offense going and failed to convert 4^th down from inside their ten. So, with two minutes to go Jacksonville would surely punch it in from the 4 making all over bets winners, right? Not a chance, the Jags were stuffed three straight times from inside the five and on 4^th and 1 from the one, elected to ice the game with a FG. Final total score of 37.

NYG 24 – Washington 17:
This was another brutal one on multiple levels. For those with the ‘Skins at -3.5, 4, 4.5, you were feeling good up 17-3 at the half and had hope throughout the game. Unfortunately, each play of the second half probably felt like slow twist of the knife into your stomach. The other part of this double whammy for the betting world was that the over under was set at anywhere from 40-42.5 depending on your sports book. Oh, and the game ended with the Redskins having first and goal from the 1 yard line of the Giants, and getting stopped four straight times. Final point total, 41.

Seattle 24 – Cincinnati 21:
The line was SEA -2.5, -3, -3.5. It’s never fun for gamblers when there’s a safety involved, but at least it came early enough in the game. This one was a heart breaker for other reasons.

The game winning TD came with a minute to go but there was still hope for those who bet on Cincinnati… or the over (ranging from 48-50 points). A last gasp drive by Carson and company for the game tying FG would ensure overtime and the “over”, as well as keep both teams chances of covering alive. That is, until the Bengals fumbled the ensuing kickoff, and Seattle recovered at the Bengals 33. But wait, they had 3 time outs so Seattle would have to try and move the ball, and maybe find the end zone or be forced to try a FG if the Bengals stopped them. After a run for no gain and a Bengals time out, Shaun Alexander broke off a 20 yard run to the Bengals 13-yard line… one play too late. Down to only two timeouts, Hasselbeck was able to kneel out the clock and end the game.

Oakland 26 – Cleveland 24:
The line was OAK -2.5, 3, 3.5. A Cleveland TD with three minutes to play made or broke this bet depending on which side you were on. Oh, and if you picked the Browns to win outright then you were certainly devastated when the game winning field goal was negated by a last second Lane Kiffin time out, only to see the re-kick get blocked and Oakland come away with the win.

Kansas City 13 – Minnesota 10:
Depending on your sports book the line was KC -3.5, 3, or 2.5.

NY Jets 31 - Miami 28:
The line was NYJ -3.5, 3, or 2.5. A Dolphins TD with one minute to play made the difference.

Indianapolis 30 – Houston 24:
It took a conversion on 4^th and 9 late in the fourth quarter to keep a Texan drive alive that ended with a touchdown to cut the lead to 6. The line on this one was Indy -5.5, 6, 6.5.

Dallas 34 - Chicago 10: over/under was 41.5.
With the Cowboys icing the game and just trying to wear down the clock, Marion Barber III broke off a 54 yard run to the goal line, and subsequent 1 yard TD run to push the point total from 37 to 44.

Baltimore 26 – Arizona 23:
Baltimore was up 26-3 (covering the 8 points) and in complete control in the fourth quarter before falling apart for the second straight week and winning by a mere field goal.

Other notes from around the league:

-What’s more likely… 16-0 Patriots or 0-16 Dolphins? Coaching and defense (or lack thereof) killed Miami yet again, while New England coasted with 35 unanswered points after falling behind Buffalo early.

-Matt Schaub and the Texans definitely struggled at times today, but they still managed to keep it a game with the Colts. They did so without their best player (Andre Johnson), and after losing Ahman Green (knee injury early in the 2^nd quarter), Jacoby Jones (separated shoulder in the third), Seth McKinney (sprained knee in the 4^th), and Cedric Killings (taken to the hospital after suffering a serious neck injury on special teams like the Bills Kevin Everett).

-Public displays of affection in Philly this weekend: Kitna was hooking up with Roy Williams all over the place. But the bigger story was that Donovan McNabb and Kevin Curtis must have taken their Cialis before the game because they hooked up 11 times (221 yards and 3 touchdowns)!

-I know someone in the top five was pretty much obligated to take Larry Johnson in their fantasy draft, but you couldn’t have felt good about it at the time, and it has to be even worse now. I see maybe 4 games where you can optimistically hope for something out of him that’s worthy of a top 5 pick. Not good business.

-How about Eli Manning and the Giants showing a little moxie to comeback in Washington.

-Tony Romo is the white Donovan McNabb. This is a good thing for Cowboys fans, because if you remember the only thing keeping McNabb from winning the big one a few years back, was that he was black.

-In other Cowboys news, can we stop pretending Julius Jones should be a significant part of the offense? MBIII is a beast.

-I really hope Calvin Johnson’s injury isn’t bad (and I don’t think it is). Not only because I like him, but also because I want Adrian Peterson to win the ROY fair and square.

-Durden was excited for this Yamon Figurs character all offseason, even more so after finding out he was faster than Devin Hester. Now we know why he was excited.

-Even I want Brian Griese to replace Grossman, and I don’t like the Bears. It’s just too painful to watch Grossman right now. As I said last week, it’s not even funny anymore, just sad.

-Steelers in the midst of the longest bye “week” in the history of the NFL, and it’s not scheduled to end until about Week 7.

-And finally, I’m going to save you the trouble of watching sports center.
Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre!!!!!!!!!!!!

Endzone to Endzone: Around the NFL Week 1

As painful as the Dolphins loss was, it’s great to have the NFL back. Week one provided some serious Monday morning water cooler topics, such as:
The Eagles putting the “special” in special teams
Vince Young still just winning football games…sorta
Rex Grossman finding more ways to embarrass himself
The two miserably failed flea flickers
Jon Kitna and Josh McCown combining for over 600 yards passing and 5 TDs, seriously
… only to be outdone by Tony Romo and Eli Manning in the late game.
And…
Despite my floundering record of 6-7-1, Durden is 8-5-1 against the spread heading into MNF. And TPS did its part in winning money for our fans as both myself and Durden nailed our recommended two team parlay’s (‘Hawks/Bolts, Texans/Vikes). You’re either with us, or against us. If you’re with us, you’re welcome.

For those who were unable to catch all the games, here are a few highlights from around the league…

New England Patriots 38 – New York Jets 14:
Tom Brady (22-28, 297, 3 TDs) and co. looked like everyone expected them to look and managed to keep Randy Moss (9-183 and a touch) happy for at least another week. If week one decided the season, we would be getting ready for Pats/Colts in the AFC title game. Those two look to be eons ahead of the rest of the NFL…at least for now.

Steeler fans may take exception to that, but playing a close game against the Browns would have been like a top 5 college team losing to a D-II school, or something completely unfathomable like that. So, I'm going to need another week or two before bumping the Steelers up my imaginary power rankings.

Denver Broncos 15 – Buffalo Bills 14:
This was a crazy game and not just because of the dramatic finish. There was a 74 yard punt return for a TD (Rascally Roscoe Parrish), a missed 2 pt. conversion, 3 missed FGs, one FG hitting the upright and going through, and the game winner being kicked while the clock was approaching zero since the Broncos didn’t have a time out to set it up. Travis Henry ran wild as expected, but Cutler looked like Jake Plummer reincarnated at times. He had trouble with a couple of snaps, threw a terrible interception in the red zone (along with quite a few other questionable passes). But, at the end of the day he had decent numbers and made some big plays to lead them on a nice plummer-esque comeback drive for the game winning FG as time expired. Marshawn Lynch looked good, particularly on his TD run.

Unfortunately, contributing to the craziness of this game was Kevin Everett making a special teams tackle that left him motionless before being taken to the hospital where he underwent lengthy surgery for a serious spinal injury. Let’s hope the prayers from around the league are answered and we hear some positive reports on Everett’s condition in the coming days.

Tennessee Titans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10:
Vince Young threw for a whopping 78 yards, rushed for 22 more, and had an INT and a fumble. But it was VY’s 2 yard TD run on a designed QB Draw that gave the Titans the lead and eventual win. It should probably be noted that the Titan defense shut down Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor, and kept Garrard under wraps as well. Oh and the Titans ran for over 280 yards (19 carries 175 yards for Chris Brown) which allowed them to hold the ball for 37 minutes. But let’s be honest with ourselves, Vince Young just wins football games.

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Green Bay Packers 16:
I warned about this game earlier in the week, but I’m still a little surprised. It seemed like Donovan was moving around well and B-Rabbit did his thing both running and receiving, and the defense was solid too. But as mentioned in the opening notes, the Eagles struggled mightily on special teams. First, they fell victim to a flukey TD where the Packers juggled and booted a muffed punt (by Greg Lewis) from around the 20 yard line all the way to the end zone before deciding to fall on it for their only TD. Lewis made a bad decision on another punt prompting the announcers to say "Greg Lewis is doing a good job of letting everyone know he has never returned punts before," before being replaced by J.R. Reed. Finally, one more miscue on a punt late in the game (this time by Reed) resulted in another turnover. Shortly thereafter, the Packers setup the game winning Field Goal from rookie kicker and game MVP Mason Crosby (3 FGs – 37, 42, 53). So, even though the passing game struggled, this loss falls primarily on the shoulders of the special teams.

Houston Texans 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 3:
The Chiefs are bad…real bad, but that doesn’t mean I’m not excited about my preseason sleeper looking great in their opener. If you’re keeping score at home –well, you shouldn’t be, but… Mario Williams has more touchdowns (one to zero), almost as many total yards (38 to 47), and of course, more wins than Reggie Bush. I’m not sayin’… I’m just sayin’.

Carolina Panthers 27 – St. Louis LinehRams 13:
Ever get that creepy déjà vu feeling?
2007 Rams/Panthers stats (2006 Rams/Panthers stats):
Delhomme: 191 yards passing (201 yards passing)
Steve Smith: 118 yards receiving, 1 TD (90 yards receiving, 1 TD)
Panthers: 186 rushing yards (234 rushing yards)
Bulger: 22/42 167 yards, 1 TD (19/34 142 yards, 1 INT)
Holt: 73 yards, TD (68 yards)
S-Jax: 61 total yards (57 total yards)

Panthers win both. Scott Linehan, you fail.

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Atlanta Falcons 3:
As Durden said he would – Yoey did do Yoey things, throwing two picks on the day. Adrian Peterson is well on his way to fulfilling my ROY prediction, but not without competition (see Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, Mason Crosby). The Falcons are exactly what we thought they’d be. I know it’s early, but I think the Falcons can start working on their merchandise and marketing plan for Brian Brohm. I can see it now - The wholesome kid out of Louisville with a golden arm, a clean criminal record, and a coach in Petrino who’s like a father to him (Read: He’s white!!).

Pittsburgh McBeams 34 – Cleveland Browns 7:
A pretty good team beat up on a really bad team. Normally I’d say ignore the highlights, but if you haven’t seen the Browns punt attempt where they had 4 penalties on one play, click here.
And if you think TPS isn't extremely concerned about only having a few more weeks to fit in all of our Romeo Crennel jokes before he gets fired, you're sorely mistaken.

Detroit Lions 36 – Oakland Raiders 21:
1 win down, 9 to go for the Lions to fulfill their quarterback’s fearless prediction of at least 10 wins. The Lions jumped out to a big early lead only to see Josh McCown bring the Raiders back in front of a crowd that was cheering “Daunte, Daunte!” in hopes of provoking a QB change after the early struggles. McCown persevered to the tune of 313 yards, 2 TDs and a completion percentage of 75% to put the Raiders up 1 in the 4^th quarter. But the Lions roared right back and finished the game the same way they started it (Two TDs and a FG unanswered) to pull away with a comfortable victory.

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6:
Seattle won fairly easily, but it was about as unconvincing as a 14 point win can be. I don’t trust any of the Seattle wide receivers against a decent defense, and Shaun Alexander was just “ok”. The bright spot was that Julian Peterson, Patrick Kerney and the crew did their job by applying a lot of pressure (5 sacks) and forcing three fumbles. It will be interesting to see if Seattle was playing down to their opponent or if they’re not as good as I originally thought. Either way, they still play in the NFC West, so they got that goin’ for them.

San Diego Chargers 14 – Da Bears 3:
Both quarterbacks were unimpressive. The Bears did more than enough on defense to contain LDT and give them a chance to win the game, but as subpar as the Chargers were on offense (Antonio Gates being the exception), the Bears were worse. Grossman managed to cause himself to fumble without getting touched while trying to elude the rush, it might not be a new one for Sexy Rexy, but certainly entertaining - must be those small hands that make it hard for him to handle the snap. He also threw a pick, and both of the Bears running backs (Benson, Peterson) helped to fumble away any chance of winning the game.

PS – Does anyone know why Joe Buck kept referring to SD WR/Punt returner Craig Davis as “Buster” Davis. Is that a nickname of his I’m not aware of or did Buck simply confuse him for the former FSU linebacker drafted in the 3^rd round by the Arizona Cardinals and cut before the season started? I gave Buck the benefit of the doubt the first couple times (not sure why - I never have before), and then when no one on the crew corrected him I thought for sure that I was the one mistaken – so if you know what’s up, please share.

Dallas Cowboys 45 – New York Giants 35:
I know the Giants defense is already banged up and had question marks to begin with, but I’m not looking forward to that Dallas offense coming to Miami next week. The Dolphins don’t have someone I feel confident in covering Patrick Crayton, let alone T.O. and Witten. Anyway, this game was real fun to watch, so much so that both teams defenses decided to stand around and take it all in (900+ total yards, 10 TDs, a botched extra point, a boat load of receptions over 20 yards, a couple long runs as well). Good win for the Cowboys, tough loss for the Giants (especially if the injuries to Brandon Jacobs, Osi Umenyiora, and Eli Manning force any of them to miss significant time).

Which brings me too…

Washington Redskins 16 – Miami Football Dolphins 13 (OT):
UGH…I said in my preview that it felt like 17-13, it played like 17-13, and the Dolphins had a chance to make it 17-13 late in the fourth but had to settle for a game tying field goal after a couple bad penalties. In fairness, the Dolphins dodged quite a few bullets just to get into OT:
1) Cam’s clock management at the end of the half was something Herman Edwards would have been proud of. Fortunately a nice scramble, pitch and catch bailed him out as the clock hit zero and the Dolphins went into the half up 7-3 instead of down 3-0 and stranding the ball inside the five yard line.
2) A seemingly atrocious pass interference call is what gave the Dolphins the field position to attempt the game tying FG. Not to say the drive wouldn’t have continued on without it, but that was a huge call, and completely inexplicable from the camera angles I saw. That being said, it still should have resulted in the game winning touchdown for the Dolphins. (angry face)
3) Fred Smoot.
4) The Dolphins have been more unlucky, than lucky on the Hail Mary, but my heart skipped a beat either way.

A handful of quick shots before I wrap this up:
-CATCH THE F*&($%* BALL!!!!! Trent Green was solid, and his numbers don’t even do him justice - at least five world class drops. I mean, these things were hitting hands and numbers, these were not guys diving for balls and not being able to corral them.

-I wasn’t unimpressed with Cameron’s play calling so much as I was surprised. 18 rushing attempts against that porous D-line and run defense? Really? I know the O-line is bad, and our backs struggled, but it just seemed odd to me. That being said, the passing game was clicking against a highly touted secondary so I’ll give him a pass on the play calling for now.

-I won't give him a pass on the penalties and drops that killed drives. Fix it asap.

-There is no excuse for Randle El finishing with 162 yards at 32.4 yards per reception. The lack of pressure on Campbell from a skilled front 7 and respected D-Coordinator was devastating, and we simply can’t afford that with the lack of talent in the secondary. We’re going to see big play after big play if that’s not fixed in a hurry. Oh, and T.O. is in town next week…

-I know the Redskins offensive line is good, but there are good offensive lines in the NFL, you have to find ways to beat them and we have the talent to do it (especially when they lost Jan Jansen to a broken ankle in the second quarter). You HAVE TO pressure the quarterback.

-It wasn't all bad. Trent Green looked much better than most expected him too, and didn't take too many hits. Chambers was regularly involved, and it's ok to admit it...Ted Ginn had everyone just a little excited on that one return (it'd be nice to see him in the passing game soon). The secondary (a huge weakness) did actually create a couple turnovers.

For a new coach, with a lot of new players, and a new offense, not the worst start we could have had on the road against a talented team. It will take some time, but man... I can't help but feel we had this one.

-A winnable game, on the road slips through our hands and tests my belief in football. How can you do that to me in week 1?!

Well, NFL, my faith is shaken, but not broken, bring on the CowBit#@%$!

'Phins @ Skins Week 1

Disclaimer: Those of you not interested in Miami/Washington may as well skip down to the previous NFL posts which are far more interesting/entertaining.

Now that the NFL got that last preseason game out of the way on Thursday, it’s time for my Miami Football Dolphins to kickoff. Let’s take a look at the week 1 matchup.

Dolphins @ Redskins: 1:00 pm EST
The ‘Skins bandwagon seems to be gaining more and more steam around the league as each day passes, and looking at their depth chart you can see why. While they have a few question marks, they don’t have a lot of gaping holes in the lineup on either side of the ball (several pro bowl caliber players at key positions).

There are some obvious concerns along the D-line, but London Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh help to sure up the LB’s (depth is still a concern), and the secondary is absolutely STACKED (and will be for a looooooong time – assuming Sean Taylor stays out of jail). I’m sure there’s a little concern as to how long it will take Pete Kendall to gel with his new line mates, but the biggest question mark of all is, of course, Jason Campbell.

Ultimately, the Redskins success this season will be determined by the performance of Campbell. Campbell’s shown flashes of being a more than capable NFL QB. Looking at the talent around him then (proven pro bowl caliber WR, TE, RB’s, and multiple lineman), you’d figure there’s only three reasons that Jason Campbell could fail this season.
1. Injuries to him/the offense
2. Play Calling/Coaching Staff not putting him in positions to be successful
3. He’s not that good.
Time will tell.

To beat the Dolphins, Washington needs to stop the run – make the Dolphins one dimensional and play to the 'Skins strengths in the defensive backfield. On offense, their RB's are too talented to abandon the run, but I think they should temper their expectations a bit. Draws, Screens, misdirections, etc… should be most effective against Porter, Taylor, and an active Dolphin defense that’s been known to over pursue on occasion. They should move the chains by feeding Chris Cooley early/often (one of the most underrated weapons in the league) and then open it up later in the game- look for a game breaker and exploit the Dolphin secondary with their speed at receiver.

That said, the Dolphins do get the Redskins at the perfect time. Campbell is a little banged up, Marcus Washington will likely not be 100%, Kendall hasn’t had a chance to play any real games with his new teammates and the kinks aren’t worked out of the offense yet.

According to the experts, for an unprecedented 20^th consecutive year the Dolphins defensive front seven will be “old” heading into the season. For the 20th consecutive season, I think opponents are going to be sorely disappointed that the age of the defense won't keep them from being one of the best against the run and at putting pressure on the QB. As usual, that part of the defense is absolutely legit. Despite not having a single reliable person in the secondary, the unit should be solid, if not spectacular at times.

The question is, can a team that brought in an offensive minded rookie head coach (Cam Cameron), a proven but declining veteran QB (Trent Green), and drafted 3 offensive players in the first round of three of the past four drafts (Ted Ginn #9 in ’07, Ronnie Brown #2 in ’05, Vernon Carey #19 in ’04) finally put it together and score some points?

To do so in week one, there’s going to have to be a heavy dose of Ronnie Brown. The Redskins run defense was atrocious last year, and as mentioned earlier, the D-line is still shaky. Miami needs to test it early and often, as the only way I see them having any success against that secondary is if they eat up some yards on the ground to open up the pass. I expect a tightly contested battle with field position playing a big role. Cameron said we were going to be thrilled watching The Ginn Family return punts, hopefully that holds true this week. A blow out would shock me, as would a high scoring game. Somewhere around 17-13 feels right.

Regardless, hopefully it starts with Joey Porter and Jason Taylor holding a meeting at Jason Campbell’s chest.
“Campbell is down… and the ball is loose!”

Alllllllllllllllriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight Miaaaaaaaamiiii!

Believe in football.

Thursday Tease (The Kurse Strikes Again!)

The Thursday opener is great, but it’s such a tease. Not only did the game not live up to the hype, but how am I supposed to get through Friday and Saturday now that you’ve whet my appetite? Well played, NFL, well played.

Anyway, on to some comments about the game and the much awaited details of “The Kurse” and the damage it’s already done…

First off, in case anyone forgot whose country this is, NBC and the NFL took the liberty of reminding us roughly 10 times before the end of the first half, thanks for that.

Indianapolis Colts 41 – New Orleans Saints 10:
I’m disappointed at how one-sided the game was, but not completely surprised at the outcome. I even mentioned in the pick’em below how there was no good reason to go against the Colts, then went and did it anyway (do as I say, not as I do).

I am surprised at how successful the Colts run defense was. I expected some big plays from Bush and McAllister (both were non factors).

Even the first drive where the Saints were having a bit of success converting 3^rd downs, they didn’t look all that impressive and couldn’t find the big play before having to punt.

Sure, Jason David played like Jason David, the Saints dropped a couple passes and Drew Brees made some bad decisions when he felt the game slipping away from him, but all in all, the Colts were just better in every single aspect…A LOT better.

I don’t like to overreact after one game, so I’m not going to talk undefeated season for the Colts, or Reggie being a BUST with the Saints in shambles. Let’s call it what it is, the Super Bowl Champs defending their title and their home turf in true championship fashion.

Now if the Saints struggle at Tampa Bay next week and/or at home under the bright lights of MNF against the Titans…then they may have issues and I can assure you they will be directly related to The Kurse…

If you recall, in the post prior to this one I mentioned the curse of my brother Keith when talking about the Seahawks’ Shaun Alexander. Well, a few people emailed me asking for more details on the Kurse (ok, I made that up, all 3 people that read the blog are friends that already know about the Kurse – but that’s beside the point. It’s fun, so keep reading.)

You see, my brother routinely drafts guys on his fantasy team with high hopes, only to watch them suffer early season ending injuries or underperform to a shocking degree. Even if you don’t play fantasy football, this is too fascinating to ignore, and it could impact your favorite team…

In the interest of time/space I’ll only cover the previous 3 seasons, leading up to the impact Keith has already had on opening night:
2004 – Record was 3-11, last place. Keith drafted Steve Smith. Week one, Steve Smith shatters his leg against the Packers. Season Over. His first round pick that season (4^th overall) was Deuce McAllister. McAllister was coming off his best year as a pro (2157 total yards). In the second game of the season, Deuce carried the ball 3 times for 1 yard before leaving with an injury that would cause him to miss the next two games. Deuce struggled the rest of the year having only three games over 78 yards rushing , that is, until Keith was eliminated from playoff contention. At which point, McAllister finished up strong with 523 total yards and 3 TDs in four games (including 268 yards rushing in his last two games). Keith took late round fliers on Charlie Garner (knee injury-played 3 games), Boo Williams (average year, then torn ACL before the ’05 season), and Tyrone Wheatley (played 8 games). None have played in the NFL since.

(I won’t even get into how different Eli Manning’s career could be if Keith, a Giants fan, hadn’t drafted him as a rookie in ’04, again in ’05, and once more in ‘06)

2005: (8-6, fourth place) This was Keith’s best year – but that doesn’t mean it was without its casualties. Priest Holmes’ comeback attempt was over before it started. He was drafted by Keith and had no chance of making it through the season. He played seven games (avg. 73.8 total yards per game). He has not played a down in the NFL since. Lee Suggs was coming off a promising second year campaign (over 900 total yards in just 10 games- 379 yards rushing in the final three games of the ’04 season) and had some serious sleeper/stud potential... He carried the ball just eight times for 15 yards. His career was essentially over (six more rushing attempts in ’06 before being released, hasn’t played since). Marshall Faulk’s final season was also spent playing for Keith before being forced to retire the following off season.

2006: Record 4-10, Last Place. I want to remind you that at the time of the draft, the safest fantasy back in the game was Shaun Alexander. You knew you were getting 1600 total yards and 14 TD’s AT A MINIMUM. He had eclipsed those numbers in each of the previous five years (including his record setting year the previous season - 1958 total yards and 28 TD’s). So Keith, wary of his own history, went with the sure thing and took Alexander #1 overall rather than take a risk on Larry Johnson’s ’05 season being a fluke (he also didn’t really like rooting for LJ to begin with) or Tomlinson who’s numbers were solid, but not as good as Alexander’s. We know how that turned out. LJ had a big year and LDT had a historical one while Alexander struggled and sat on the sidelines for a good portion of the season. I wish that was where it ended, but it’s not. Keith also drafted Domanick Davis (now Domanick Williams). Davis was the Texans all time leading rusher before Keith drafted him. That preseason he went on IR due to a lingering knee injury. He’ll likely never play another down in the NFL.

2007: That brings us to this year. Good news for Giant fans. NO ELI MANNING on his roster (Could signal a breakout year). I’m simply going to post his roster as a warning. If you have any of these players it’s probably in your best interest to try and trade them. The Kurse doesn’t strike everyone, but do you really feel lucky enough to take the chance on keeping someone from this list? And if the evidence from the last three seasons isn’t enough to make you believe, just ask Drew Brees what he thinks about being on Keith’s fantasy team.

**Note: Prior to tonight’s kickoff my brother said “Drew Brees is going to put up so many fantasy points he’s going to break Yahoo’s stat tracker.” You can’t make this stuff up folks. Without further ado...

Keith’s Current Roster:
Drew Brees
Lee Evans
Randy Moss
Shaun Alexander
Travis Henry
Jeremy Shockey
Braylon Edwards
Fred Taylor
Jay Cutler
Deion Branch
Devery Henderson
Jerry Porter
Brian Leonard
Owen Daniels
Michael Pittman
Matt Stover
Denver Defense

Come back for more on Saturday when I'll tackle the Dolphins/Skins preview along with some other NFL stuff and maybe talk a little New York Mets baseball... and remember to always Believe in football - even you Keith.

Spread'em: the In-N-Out Challenge

Ahhhhhhh, welcome back football.

First off, we’re not experts (we just play them on the Internet) and our advice should be taken no more seriously than Romeo Crennel takes his starting QB competition.

The challenge was created when I (Mazzone) moved from East coast to West coast and with the help of a friend back east (Durden) learned of the brilliance that is In-N-Out Burger. The person who wins this year long competition will receive an In-N-Out burger for each game they win by, paid for by the loser.


Don’t kill us too much for not picking your favorite team to win and cover the spread every week.

Enjoy the commentary, enjoy the games, and keep coming back for more.

(right click on the hyperlinks and open in a new window for additional entertainment throughout this blog)

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Mazzone: Heck of a way to open the season. There’s really no explanation for picking against the defending Super Bowl champs at home when they have one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. So I’ll just say – I like watching Reggie Bush. Pick: Saints +5.5

Durden: Will Archie Manning attend with a paper bag over his head? More importantly, will this be the beginning of what I think should be a down year for the Colts? I'd feel even more confident about that if their division wasn't a joke, but in the meantime, look for the Saints to prevail in a shootout. Pick: Saints +5.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-3)
Mazzone: Last year the Texans were the “money” team for a coworker of mine (Teddy Ballgame). Ballgame’s either a little slow, or way ahead of his time - depending on who you ask. I think he was a year early on the Texans. I like Ahman Green to have a real nice year, Schaub to be more than serviceable with just enough weapons to make the Texans dangerous. .500 or better isn’t out of the question. Pick: Texans -3

Durden: This week's Gus Johnson Special! I expect both of these teams to be equally woeful on offense and defense this year, so unless Jac. Jones takes a kickoff to the house, I don't want to see a second of this game on Sunday. I'll give the edge to the Chiefs in an ugly one, but here's to Our Buddy Gus calling some better games this year. Pick: Chiefs +3

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Mazzone: I think Champ Bailey is going to make it tough for the Bills to complete their signature play of Losman chucking it deep and hoping Lee Evans outruns everyone and catches it. Travis Henry always feels like he has something to prove, even moreso against the Bills. Expect him to celebrate a Broncos win by fathering his 10^th child from 10 different women.
Pick: Broncos -3.5

Durden: The Bills lost Clements, McGahee, Spikes and Fletcher, while overspending on a new Offensive Line. I'm typically inclined to ignore the Bills, but it's nice of them to make it easy on me. Only thing that could do the Broncos in is Cutler coming out impatient, but I think the Mastermind will have him prepared. Pick: Broncos -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
Mazzone: The Browns and their fans have high hopes for the future with Brady Quinn, Joe Thomas, Kamerion Wimbley, Braylon Edwards and the Soldier. The Steelers and their fans have high hopes for this game, because they’re playing the Browns. “Fast” Willie Parker and “Smiling” Hines Ward in a romp.
Pick: Steelers -4.5

Durden: There aren't two teams I hate more in the NFL. Unfortunately, I think Tomlin was the right hire for the McBeams and he should have them ready to come out flying on both sides of the ball. Crennel, on the other hand, resorts to coin tosses to determine his starting QB. Yes, really. 'Nuff said. Pick: Steelers -4.5

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Mazzone: Committing to David Garrard is nice, but it’s not like he hasn’t had ample opportunity to run away with the job prior to now. That being said, I’m not exactly sold on the Titans being relevant either. Even though 6.5 seems like a lot of points and I’m told Vince Young just wins football games, I’m leaning the other way. The Jags were 6-2 at home last season, and all of their eight wins were by more than six points (surprised me too)… Pick: Jags -6.5

Durden: V Diddy's good, but I don't think it was necessary to turn up his degree of difficulty, which is exactly what the Titans did. The Jags will miss Brad Meester, but the Schedule Gods did them a favor in softening the blow, beginning with a nice win vs. the Titans. That VY's not gonna help them on Sunday, this one's going to hurt. Pick: Jags -6.5

Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams (-1)
Mazzone: I know it’s only preseason, but Delhomme looked REAAAAAAAL bad (maybe the Rams D is the cure?). More importantly though, in 2005 a friend of ours (Dave) lost our survivor pool in week 1 when the Rams were upset by the 49ers. In 2006, Dave lasted until week 2…when the Rams were upset by the Niners. Who’s the Rams week 2 opponent in 2007 you ask?… the Niners. So, I like the Rams here and obviously the Niners next week. If Dave throws a curveball and takes the Rams this week in survivor, all bets are off. Pick: Rams -1

Durden: Tough game, but the Rams will go as Torry Holt will – giving himself up at three quarters strength. The Panthers should run wild and do just enough to keep S-Jax from taking over. Pick: Panthers +1

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (+3)
Mazzone: Packers are probably the least likely of all the home underdogs to cover this week as all signs point to an Eagles route unless you’re concerned about McNabb’s health (I’m not. He’s on both my fantasy teams). That being said, opening week always has some odd results and this game gives me an inexplicable eerie feeling. I didn’t go with the other home dogs and it’s early in the season so I can afford to play a nonsensical hunch. Pick: Packers +3

Durden: Guess who's back?! Donovan at less than full strength is still better than the majority of the QBs in the league and we'll get to see just why the Eagles took Sidney Rice with their 1^st pick in the draft. Oh, wait. Well, Andy Reid and Kevin Kolb will look good together on the sidelines enjoying this one, as Green Bay's QB begins to ruin another Packer season. Pick: Eagles -3

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Mazzone: Part of me is wondering if Bobby Petrino is devising ways to throw the season so he can land Brian Brohm. Another part of me is wondering if he even has to. Adrian Peterson was capable of playing in the NFL three years ago. I feel like, after the injuries in subsequent years, no one remembers that. He and Chester Taylor give Tarvaris Jackson a chance to be successful. Pick: Vikings -3 (Peterson for rookie of the year)

Durden: The league's best run defense will force Yoey into doing Yoey things, and Tarvaris Jackson will kinda show us why he's almost for-real. If not, that Adrian Peterson kid is pretty good too. Dog days ahead for the ATL. Pick: Vikings -3

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (-3)
Mazzone: I have no idea who’s going to cover Santana Moss and I have no idea who’s going to get open against the loaded secondary of the Redskins. But I believe in Ronnie Brown, I believe in the Dolphins defensive front 7 and I’m ready to believe in Cam Cam and The Ginn Family. Pick: Dolphins +3

Durden: Ronnie Brown taking kicks to the house, Ginn catching 6 balls for 100 yards, Chambers setting downfield blocks for Chatman while he runs for 150, and Joey Porter picking off Campbell... twice. It's all going to be on display folks, and it's all by Cam Cam's design. Don't you dare suggest that I'm just saying that because Mazz is giving me some space on TPS. Pick: Dolphins +3

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Mazzone: Being a Dolphin fan, I loathe this game. I always root for 0-0 tie where the teams just kick the crap out of each other for the whole game. That, and I root for Chad Pennington’s arm to come flying off while still holding the ball on a pass attempt. Romeo Crennel told me to just flip a coin… Pick: Patriots -6.5

Durden: This should be the beginning of a long season for the rest of the league. Mangina may have been able to think outside the box last year and screw the Pats, but they'll be overmatched and overwhelmed by New England this season. Pick: Patriots -6.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Mazzone: They say when you have 4 QB’s, you don’t have any. That couldn’t be more true in Gruden’s case, the Bucs are just hoping to get lucky with one of them at some point this season. Shaun Alexander’s primed for a huge season that should start here. The only thing in his way is “The Curse of Keith”. Every fantasy league has that one guy that just kills the season of whomever he drafts. My brother, Keith, has been that guy for awhile now and he’s got Shaun… good luck (more on the curse of Keith in future blogs). Pick: Seahawks -6

Durden: The Seahawks may have underachieved last year, but at least they had expectations. The Bucs are another team that inexplicably didn't do anything to truly improve themselves. Garcia's going to be running for his life all game as the Seahawks defense should actually be a strength this year with the addition of Kerney and Mora coaching the secondary. Pick: Seahawks -6

Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (-6)
Mazzone: I live near Qualcomm Stadium and have 4 Bears fans staying in my apartment this weekend. I’ll toss on a Gates Jersey to taunt them a bit, but I think the Sex Cannon might have one of his games where people think “hmmm, he could still be good.” Pick: Da Bears +6

Durden: While the Bears will struggle on offense, the Chargers shouldn't have a problem setting up the pass by establishing the run early. San Diego simply has too many studs on both sides of the ball and Grossman obviously won't be able to save them as Benson struggles in his debut as the focus of their run game. Pick: Chargers -6

Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders (-2)
Mazzone: Roy Williams told me the Lions we’re “a good 3-13” last year and came close to scoring 40 pts several times despite what the scoreboard says. He also said “the score means nothing.” I disagree. Pick: Oakland -2


Durden: I feel good believing in Jon Kitna because he believes in God more than anyone not named Brenda Warner. Sure, the Raiders defense is good but Calvin's got a job now, and it's about to tear the Raiders apart. On a more unrelated note, I heard Lane Kiffin was in the hospital. Is he still old enough to qualify for Make a Wish? Pick: Lions +2

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Mazzone: I struggled picking this one. On one hand, I feel like Romo should have a field day with the Giants secondary. On the other hand, as long as Coughlin doesn’t force anyone else into retirement before kickoff I think the Giants should make a game of it as they usually do. Week one, divisional matchup…I’ll take the points in this one. Pick: Giants +6

Durden: I found it laughable when Tiki tried to address us all as a member of the media, but unfortunately for Eli, the G-Men won't be able to say they're fine without Tiki just yet. There are too many question marks for the Giants right now, and a healthy Burress is a must to beat the Cowboys. Carrie Underwood will be going home happy. Pick: Cowboys -6

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Mazzone: Last year, the teams split. The Ravens won the high scoring battle at home and the Bengals won the low scoring game in Cincy, go figure. Shayne Graham is banged up, which isn’t good considering the Ravens allowed less than 13 points a game last season. Nonetheless, “he’s just a kicker” and Durden is a Baltimore fan so that solves this toss-up. I’ll give the points and take the Bengals at home. Pick: Bengals -3

Durden: In spite of multiple injury concerns that don't seem to be getting much press for some reason, I'm taking the good guys on my birthday. If they can at least contain The Chad and get ANYTHING out of the offense, it'll be a good Dos-Cinco for me. Pick: Ravens +3

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Mazzone: Remember that time the trendy pick went on to surprisingly disappoint the experts? This year’s trendy pick is San Francisco (a year too early). Pick: Cardinals +3

Durden: Gotta give props to the 49ers for showing other teams how to take care of biz in the offseason. Whisenhunt was another good hire this offseason, but the Cardinals still aren't ready to make the leap and I'm sure the Offensive Line's Grimm predicament isn't quite what he had in mind. The 49ers will come out strong and make a statement on MNF, leaving Whisenpants frustrated with his leaking team. Pick: 49ers -3

Double Double: In this segment Durden and I will each pick a two team parlay – usually including the spread. Occasionally we may go Animal Style and pick a couple of underdogs to win outright. Durden likes the heavy favorites this week. And, though I like the ‘hawks too, I’d be ridiculed if I didn’t go with the Texans after hyping them up during the preseason.

Durden: Seahawks (-6), Chargers (-6)
Mazzone: Houston (-3), Vikings (-3)

Bet safely, and always believe in football