Sunday, September 23, 2007

Vegas Flexes its Muscles (week 3 roundup)

I’m told the house always wins. And unless you’re a fan of heart attacks, today was great reinforcement for why you shouldn’t bet on sports. Here’s a recap of some of the day’s biggest gambling events, before getting into some news and notes around the league.

Jacksonville 23 – Denver 14:
This game had to be responsible for at least one gambling related death today. The over/under ranged from 36 - 37.5 points depending on where you place your bets. The score was 20-14 with over 12 minutes to play. Those with the over were feeling great. That was until the Jags put together a 6 minute drive only to see Maurice Jones-Drew fumble at the Denver 2 yard line. All of the sudden those with the under were alive again and those with the over were sweating. Denver couldn’t get the offense going and failed to convert 4th down from inside their ten. So, with two minutes to go Jacksonville would surely punch it in from the 4 making all over bets winners, right? Not a chance, the Jags were stuffed three straight times from inside the five and on 4th and 1 from the one, elected to ice the game with a FG. Final total score of 37.

NYG 24 – Washington 17:
This was another brutal one on multiple levels. For those with the ‘Skins at -3.5, 4, 4.5, you were feeling good up 17-3 at the half and had hope throughout the game. Unfortunately, each play of the second half probably felt like slow twist of the knife into your stomach. The other part of this double whammy for the betting world was that the over under was set at anywhere from 40-42.5 depending on your sports book. Oh, and the game ended with the Redskins having first and goal from the 1 yard line of the Giants, and getting stopped four straight times. Final point total, 41.

Seattle 24 – Cincinnati 21:
The line was SEA -2.5, -3, -3.5. It’s never fun for gamblers when there’s a safety involved, but at least it came early enough in the game. This one was a heart breaker for other reasons.

The game winning TD came with a minute to go but there was still hope for those who bet on Cincinnati… or the over (ranging from 48-50 points). A last gasp drive by Carson and company for the game tying FG would ensure overtime and the “over”, as well as keep both teams chances of covering alive. That is, until the Bengals fumbled the ensuing kickoff, and Seattle recovered at the Bengals 33. But wait, they had 3 time outs so Seattle would have to try and move the ball, and maybe find the end zone or be forced to try a FG if the Bengals stopped them. After a run for no gain and a Bengals time out, Shaun Alexander broke off a 20 yard run to the Bengals 13-yard line… one play too late. Down to only two timeouts, Hasselbeck was able to kneel out the clock and end the game.

Oakland 26 – Cleveland 24:
The line was OAK -2.5, 3, 3.5. A Cleveland TD with three minutes to play made or broke this bet depending on which side you were on. Oh, and if you picked the Browns to win outright then you were certainly devastated when the game winning field goal was negated by a last second Lane Kiffin time out, only to see the re-kick get blocked and Oakland come away with the win.

Kansas City 13 – Minnesota 10:
Depending on your sports book the line was KC -3.5, 3, or 2.5.

NY Jets 31 - Miami 28:
The line was NYJ -3.5, 3, or 2.5. A Dolphins TD with one minute to play made the difference.

Indianapolis 30 – Houston 24:
It took a conversion on 4th and 9 late in the fourth quarter to keep a Texan drive alive that ended with a touchdown to cut the lead to 6. The line on this one was Indy -5.5, 6, 6.5.

Dallas 34 - Chicago 10: over/under was 41.5.
With the Cowboys icing the game and just trying to wear down the clock, Marion Barber III broke off a 54 yard run to the goal line, and subsequent 1 yard TD run to push the point total from 37 to 44.

Baltimore 26 – Arizona 23:
Baltimore was up 26-3 (covering the 8 points) and in complete control in the fourth quarter before falling apart for the second straight week and winning by a mere field goal.

Other notes from around the league:

-What’s more likely… 16-0 Patriots or 0-16 Dolphins? Coaching and defense (or lack thereof) killed Miami yet again, while New England coasted with 35 unanswered points after falling behind Buffalo early.

-Matt Schaub and the Texans definitely struggled at times today, but they still managed to keep it a game with the Colts. They did so without their best player (Andre Johnson), and after losing Ahman Green (knee injury early in the 2nd quarter), Jacoby Jones (separated shoulder in the third), Seth McKinney (sprained knee in the 4th), and Cedric Killings (taken to the hospital after suffering a serious neck injury on special teams like the Bills Kevin Everett).

-Public displays of affection in Philly this weekend: Kitna was hooking up with Roy Williams all over the place. But the bigger story was that Donovan McNabb and Kevin Curtis must have taken their Cialis before the game because they hooked up 11 times (221 yards and 3 touchdowns)!

-I know someone in the top five was pretty much obligated to take Larry Johnson in their fantasy draft, but you couldn’t have felt good about it at the time, and it has to be even worse now. I see maybe 4 games where you can optimistically hope for something out of him that’s worthy of a top 5 pick. Not good business.

-How about Eli Manning and the Giants showing a little moxie to comeback in Washington.

-Tony Romo is the white Donovan McNabb. This is a good thing for Cowboys fans, because if you remember the only thing keeping McNabb from winning the big one a few years back, was that he was black.

-In other Cowboys news, can we stop pretending Julius Jones should be a significant part of the offense? MBIII is a beast.

-I really hope Calvin Johnson’s injury isn’t bad (and I don’t think it is). Not only because I like him, but also because I want Adrian Peterson to win the ROY fair and square.

-Durden was excited for this Yamon Figurs character all offseason, even more so after finding out he was faster than Devin Hester. Now we know why he was excited.

-Even I want Brian Griese to replace Grossman, and I don’t like the Bears. It’s just too painful to watch Grossman right now. As I said last week, it’s not even funny anymore, just sad.

-Steelers in the midst of the longest bye “week” in the history of the NFL, and it’s not scheduled to end until about Week 7.

-And finally, I’m going to save you the trouble of watching sports center.
Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre!!!!!!!!!!!!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I don't see anyone stopping NE this year. They're def. going 19-0 or whatever.

-Theny

gaylord said...

Good article, there were a ton of close games spreadwise, luckily the book I was at had the Over in Denver at 36, and I squeaked it out by a point

Might want to mention to your Vegas readers that vegasinsider.com has the spreads for all the casinos, when I drop a big bet I always look for the casino with the best line