Fantasy Focus

Nothing really earth shattering on the fantasy front in week 1 (aside from the dismal performance from most of the elite RB’s). Sure Romo, Eli, Burress and some others had great numbers, but they’re not exactly strangers to that.

I’m not wasting this space talking about the usual suspects since you’re not sitting LDT, Frank Gore, or the like whether they’re playin’ the Rams or the Bears. Instead, we’ll talk about later round picks that stood out in week 1 and some other lesser guys I like in week 2.

Before I get into my week 1 surprises and my week 2 sleepers I want to kick off a new feature here at TPS where we'll monitor the previously mentioned Kurse of Keith. We’ll take a look at a handful of guys on Keith’s current roster and place them into one of 5 categories from most likely to be cursed, to least likely. You should adjust your roster accordingly. Let’s get started…

Start planning your retirement.
I know Lee Evans was shut down and Deion Branch didn’t catch a ball (we’ll get to those two), but this week the honor goes to Drew Brees. With three turnovers and most of his yardage in garbage time, he looked a shell of his former self. His agent reportedly contacted Keith and demanded a trade, but to no avail. Drew’s performance against Tampa should give us more of a clue as to where this is headed. For now, it might not be a bad idea for Saints fans and Drew Brees owners to start a prayer group.

Quick, fake an injury!
Deion Branch! He’s a number 1 receiver on a playoff bound team that scored 20 points and won the game fairly easily…and he had ZERO fantasy points. He was only targeted three times and, after the game, Holmgren actually confirmed Branch was the #1 receiver and claimed the Bucs just focused on stopping him. Oh really? Teams are game planning that much for Deion Branch now (never had 1000 yards or more than 5 TDs in a season)? Maybe that’s why the Bucs are so bad? You could argue him for the top spot this week, but Drew Brees is more significant.

1-2, he's comin' for you...
Michael Pittman - This would be unprecedented, even for Keith. He may go through Cadillac Williams (went down with a rib injury again last week), just to get to Pittman.

Safe...for now
Lee Evans – I’m giving him a pass because the Denver DB’s are among the best, and Keith has actually had great success with Evans before, despite J.P. Losman being prominently involved - knock on wood.

I'm a Survivor!
Randy Moss – I’ve tried in the past to get Keith to jinx the Patriots (Tom Brady) but they are even more powerful than he is. Maybe Goodell can break the seemingly impenetrable shield with the upcoming punishment for cheating.

Geico Gecko - In a long running league joke, Keith’s mascot and team name is Gecko. The Gecko is safe, despite rumored threats from “Kid with the toothpick.” Reports have come out that despite his tough exterior, Kid with a toothpick is actually pretty soft and said in a recent interview, "I wish the Gecko was my dad." And who can blame him? I mean, who doesn’t love the Gecko, that’s like asking who doesn’t want free pie and chips!

We’ll tackle the Kurse update again next week with a different group of guys (at least Drew Brees hopes so), but now it’s onto Studs and Sleepers…


Week 1 Surprise Studs:
Josh McCown, the first of THREE Oakland Raiders to appear in this section. If you started Josh McCown last week you’re probably either in a 14/16 team league that forces you to start 2 QB’s or you’re Josh McCown. After a slow start and the home crowd cheering him on by chanting for his backup, McCown completed 75% of his passes and threw for 313 yards and 2 TDs. Most people probably won’t feel comfortable taking a risk on McCown yet, but he does have Cleveland at home week 3, and goes to Miami in week 4. Of course, he also may not have a job after Denver gets through with him this week…

Chris Brown’s 175 yards rushing probably stood out to a lot of people, and it is a big number, but not finding the end zone hurt his overall value. Even so, most of us know the Titans running game was strong last year, and in 2004 Brown put up monster numbers (11 games, 1214 total yards, 4.9 ypc) as a full time starter before missing five games to injury and going on to struggle the next two seasons, so success shouldn’t be too surprising. That being said, he might be a guy you want to sell high on with his injury history and a couple of young backs waiting in the wings. If the Brandon Jacobs owner in your league wasn’t able to grab Ward he may be interested in someone like Brown as a stop gap.

Lamont Jordan also returned to fantasy relevance with a nice little game (159 total yards and a touch). He’s one I would hang onto. Despite the Raiders being bad and likely trailing in games, Lamont won’t lose touches. Lane Kiffin has clearly decided to include Jordan in the passing game where he was so successful two years ago. He had 70 catches during his career year in 2005 (15 games played) and not once did he catch 9 passes or have 89 yards like he did this past Sunday. If Jordan is catching just 5 or 6 balls a game he’s in for a solid year.

Antwaan Randle El is always intriguing because he’s got BPP (Big Play Potential). You may not get the consistency you’d like but you know he’s one big reception, punt return, end around, or passing touchdown away from having a good week. He's more likely to break off that big play than your average waiver wire/borderline fantasy starter type guy. There aren’t too many quadruple threat’s out there. If you have the room, pick him up and stash him away on the bench for a week or two. That should be enough time to tell if what we saw last Sunday (162 yards and a TD) was chemistry between he and Campbell or just the product of an abysmal Miami secondary.

Ronald Curry gets honorable mention for being a former UNC point guard. Oh yea, and he had 133 yards and a TD, but I’m sick of talking about Raiders, so…

Who I like for Week 2:

It might not be a bad idea to take a flier on Michael Pittman if Caddy (bruised ribs) can’t go. The Saints run d was exposed last week and Pittman’s proven to be a capable runner in Gruden’s offense before. The last three times he had more than 10 carries in a game for the Bucs – 6.1 ypc, 5.4 ypc, 8.5 ypc (286 rushing yards, no fumbles, 2 tds). He also had 47 catches last season despite being a backup and had five receptions against the Seahawks last week. (side note: He’s currently on Keith’s bench, not in the starting lineup. If he starts him, all bets are off)

At tight end, I like Eric Johnson. Brees struggled last week, but seemed to find Johnson quite a bit, and Johnson’s been reliable and productive in the past, when healthy. Also, the Bucs gave up 43 yards to Marcus Pollard on 5 catches last week. Johnson should surpass that this week.

At wideout I like Chris Chambers against a banged up Cowboy secondary that struggled last year and last week. I don’t care what early reports from Cowboy’s camp say, Terrence Newman will not be close to 100 percent even if he steps on the field this weekend. Plantar fasciitis is a big deal and lingers for quite a while, and when you think it’s resolved, it resurfaces. Also, now feels like a good time to mention that Roy Williams is over rated and Anthony Henry has never been that good. If the Dolphins can keep Trent Green upright (easier said than done), they’ll be able to pass the ball on the Cowboys. Oh, and last time Chambers saw the Cowboys, he lit them up for 3 TD’s with Jay Fiedler throwing him the ball.

I also like Demetrius Williams against the Jets. Demetrius and I have a history that goes back to his college days which I’ll get into in another post. For now, just know that he’s the real deal and if McNair (or Boller) can get the ball in his vicinity, he’ll come down with it.

Lastly, I love Kellen Clemens/Chad Pennington against the Ravens. This has nothing to do with fantasy football, I just can’t wait to see that...



That's all for now, check back later in the week as the against the spread picks will be posted in time for you to waste your companies money by reading them first thing Friday morning...

Random Tuesday Musings

--Reports out of Cleveland are that Derek Anderson is furious Romeo Crennel did NOT do a best Two out of Three on today’s coin toss to determine which QB got to be traded to Seattle.

--The list of unfair competitive advantages continues to grow for the Patsies. First HGH to Rodney Harrison, now complex sign stealing involving cameramen and radio frequencies. Soon the rest of the world will loathe the Patriots as much as I do. I hope we get at least one shot of a fan holding up "Please don't steal my sign" at their next game.

--Even prior to Monday Night and McNair looking like he might be part of Tim Donaghy’s circle of friends, TPS was rooting for Kyle Boller to get an opportunity. Myself, because I’ve long enjoyed hating on Boller ever since he was drafted for his ability to perform on his knees (claiming he can throw 50-yards through the goalposts from his knees, among other things), and Durden because he’s one of few Raven fans that has always and continues to believe Kyle Boller will be successful. Is it time?

--Though not his best, I enjoyed THE Chad’s celebration. The only thing that hurt it was the build-up. Manage expectations Chad.

--This isn’t news, but Ray Lewis is an animal. And not just because he may or may not have killed someone and may or may not have played with a torn triceps muscle last night.

--Ron Jaworski has never met a quarterback he didn’t like, no…LOVE.

--If Rick Spielman wasn’t overruled by Dave Wannstedt’s mustache, Anquan Boldin could be wasting away in Miami instead of wasting away Arizona right now. Boldin will get his numbers by seasons end simply because he's one of the best, but that game was tough to watch.

--Potentially devastating injuries all over the place, but no injury was less surprising than Chad Pennington’s.

--Fantasy Football pundits Matthew Barry, Jamey Eisenberg, Bill Simmons, Dave Kricheff, and others all thought I made the wrong decision by starting Tony Romo over Donovan McNabb this week. I wish I could enjoy it more, but my team still got beat pretty handily (I blame Reggie Bush).

--“Reno to the Rescue!” More than one Eagle fan mentioned to me how they wanted Reno Mahe back after the debacle on Sunday. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, their wish may be granted. Eagles contacted Mahe (in Utah) and told him to get to Philly ASAP. Jeremy Bloom is another possible option.

--Al Davis outsmarts everyone again. Signing Russell now will likely avoid all QB controversy in Oakland as he simply couldn’t even think of starting for at least a month. He’ll be able to make it through the season healthy and pair him with their first round pick next year (Darren McFadden, DeSean Jackson?!). It will be like having 2 top five picks next year. Well played Al Davis…

--I’m an Eli Manning apologist, but you’re crazy if you think I don't want to see J-Load (Jared Lorenzen) line up behind, over, and under center for a full game.

--Stop by tomorrow when we’ll talk a little Fantasy Football, highlighted by the Kurse and its impact on Week 1, plus what to expect for week 2. Week 2 against the spread picks are in the works and will be posted late Thursday evening for those of you on the West Coast (me) and first thing Friday morning for everyone else.

Spread'em: the In-N-Out Challenge

Ahhhhhhh, welcome back football.

First off, we’re not experts (we just play them on the Internet) and our advice should be taken no more seriously than Romeo Crennel takes his starting QB competition.

The challenge was created when I (Mazzone) moved from East coast to West coast and with the help of a friend back east (Durden) learned of the brilliance that is In-N-Out Burger. The person who wins this year long competition will receive an In-N-Out burger for each game they win by, paid for by the loser.


Don’t kill us too much for not picking your favorite team to win and cover the spread every week.

Enjoy the commentary, enjoy the games, and keep coming back for more.

(right click on the hyperlinks and open in a new window for additional entertainment throughout this blog)

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Mazzone: Heck of a way to open the season. There’s really no explanation for picking against the defending Super Bowl champs at home when they have one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. So I’ll just say – I like watching Reggie Bush. Pick: Saints +5.5

Durden: Will Archie Manning attend with a paper bag over his head? More importantly, will this be the beginning of what I think should be a down year for the Colts? I'd feel even more confident about that if their division wasn't a joke, but in the meantime, look for the Saints to prevail in a shootout. Pick: Saints +5.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-3)
Mazzone: Last year the Texans were the “money” team for a coworker of mine (Teddy Ballgame). Ballgame’s either a little slow, or way ahead of his time - depending on who you ask. I think he was a year early on the Texans. I like Ahman Green to have a real nice year, Schaub to be more than serviceable with just enough weapons to make the Texans dangerous. .500 or better isn’t out of the question. Pick: Texans -3

Durden: This week's Gus Johnson Special! I expect both of these teams to be equally woeful on offense and defense this year, so unless Jac. Jones takes a kickoff to the house, I don't want to see a second of this game on Sunday. I'll give the edge to the Chiefs in an ugly one, but here's to Our Buddy Gus calling some better games this year. Pick: Chiefs +3

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Mazzone: I think Champ Bailey is going to make it tough for the Bills to complete their signature play of Losman chucking it deep and hoping Lee Evans outruns everyone and catches it. Travis Henry always feels like he has something to prove, even moreso against the Bills. Expect him to celebrate a Broncos win by fathering his 10^th child from 10 different women.
Pick: Broncos -3.5

Durden: The Bills lost Clements, McGahee, Spikes and Fletcher, while overspending on a new Offensive Line. I'm typically inclined to ignore the Bills, but it's nice of them to make it easy on me. Only thing that could do the Broncos in is Cutler coming out impatient, but I think the Mastermind will have him prepared. Pick: Broncos -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
Mazzone: The Browns and their fans have high hopes for the future with Brady Quinn, Joe Thomas, Kamerion Wimbley, Braylon Edwards and the Soldier. The Steelers and their fans have high hopes for this game, because they’re playing the Browns. “Fast” Willie Parker and “Smiling” Hines Ward in a romp.
Pick: Steelers -4.5

Durden: There aren't two teams I hate more in the NFL. Unfortunately, I think Tomlin was the right hire for the McBeams and he should have them ready to come out flying on both sides of the ball. Crennel, on the other hand, resorts to coin tosses to determine his starting QB. Yes, really. 'Nuff said. Pick: Steelers -4.5

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Mazzone: Committing to David Garrard is nice, but it’s not like he hasn’t had ample opportunity to run away with the job prior to now. That being said, I’m not exactly sold on the Titans being relevant either. Even though 6.5 seems like a lot of points and I’m told Vince Young just wins football games, I’m leaning the other way. The Jags were 6-2 at home last season, and all of their eight wins were by more than six points (surprised me too)… Pick: Jags -6.5

Durden: V Diddy's good, but I don't think it was necessary to turn up his degree of difficulty, which is exactly what the Titans did. The Jags will miss Brad Meester, but the Schedule Gods did them a favor in softening the blow, beginning with a nice win vs. the Titans. That VY's not gonna help them on Sunday, this one's going to hurt. Pick: Jags -6.5

Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams (-1)
Mazzone: I know it’s only preseason, but Delhomme looked REAAAAAAAL bad (maybe the Rams D is the cure?). More importantly though, in 2005 a friend of ours (Dave) lost our survivor pool in week 1 when the Rams were upset by the 49ers. In 2006, Dave lasted until week 2…when the Rams were upset by the Niners. Who’s the Rams week 2 opponent in 2007 you ask?… the Niners. So, I like the Rams here and obviously the Niners next week. If Dave throws a curveball and takes the Rams this week in survivor, all bets are off. Pick: Rams -1

Durden: Tough game, but the Rams will go as Torry Holt will – giving himself up at three quarters strength. The Panthers should run wild and do just enough to keep S-Jax from taking over. Pick: Panthers +1

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (+3)
Mazzone: Packers are probably the least likely of all the home underdogs to cover this week as all signs point to an Eagles route unless you’re concerned about McNabb’s health (I’m not. He’s on both my fantasy teams). That being said, opening week always has some odd results and this game gives me an inexplicable eerie feeling. I didn’t go with the other home dogs and it’s early in the season so I can afford to play a nonsensical hunch. Pick: Packers +3

Durden: Guess who's back?! Donovan at less than full strength is still better than the majority of the QBs in the league and we'll get to see just why the Eagles took Sidney Rice with their 1^st pick in the draft. Oh, wait. Well, Andy Reid and Kevin Kolb will look good together on the sidelines enjoying this one, as Green Bay's QB begins to ruin another Packer season. Pick: Eagles -3

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Mazzone: Part of me is wondering if Bobby Petrino is devising ways to throw the season so he can land Brian Brohm. Another part of me is wondering if he even has to. Adrian Peterson was capable of playing in the NFL three years ago. I feel like, after the injuries in subsequent years, no one remembers that. He and Chester Taylor give Tarvaris Jackson a chance to be successful. Pick: Vikings -3 (Peterson for rookie of the year)

Durden: The league's best run defense will force Yoey into doing Yoey things, and Tarvaris Jackson will kinda show us why he's almost for-real. If not, that Adrian Peterson kid is pretty good too. Dog days ahead for the ATL. Pick: Vikings -3

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (-3)
Mazzone: I have no idea who’s going to cover Santana Moss and I have no idea who’s going to get open against the loaded secondary of the Redskins. But I believe in Ronnie Brown, I believe in the Dolphins defensive front 7 and I’m ready to believe in Cam Cam and The Ginn Family. Pick: Dolphins +3

Durden: Ronnie Brown taking kicks to the house, Ginn catching 6 balls for 100 yards, Chambers setting downfield blocks for Chatman while he runs for 150, and Joey Porter picking off Campbell... twice. It's all going to be on display folks, and it's all by Cam Cam's design. Don't you dare suggest that I'm just saying that because Mazz is giving me some space on TPS. Pick: Dolphins +3

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+6.5)
Mazzone: Being a Dolphin fan, I loathe this game. I always root for 0-0 tie where the teams just kick the crap out of each other for the whole game. That, and I root for Chad Pennington’s arm to come flying off while still holding the ball on a pass attempt. Romeo Crennel told me to just flip a coin… Pick: Patriots -6.5

Durden: This should be the beginning of a long season for the rest of the league. Mangina may have been able to think outside the box last year and screw the Pats, but they'll be overmatched and overwhelmed by New England this season. Pick: Patriots -6.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Mazzone: They say when you have 4 QB’s, you don’t have any. That couldn’t be more true in Gruden’s case, the Bucs are just hoping to get lucky with one of them at some point this season. Shaun Alexander’s primed for a huge season that should start here. The only thing in his way is “The Curse of Keith”. Every fantasy league has that one guy that just kills the season of whomever he drafts. My brother, Keith, has been that guy for awhile now and he’s got Shaun… good luck (more on the curse of Keith in future blogs). Pick: Seahawks -6

Durden: The Seahawks may have underachieved last year, but at least they had expectations. The Bucs are another team that inexplicably didn't do anything to truly improve themselves. Garcia's going to be running for his life all game as the Seahawks defense should actually be a strength this year with the addition of Kerney and Mora coaching the secondary. Pick: Seahawks -6

Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (-6)
Mazzone: I live near Qualcomm Stadium and have 4 Bears fans staying in my apartment this weekend. I’ll toss on a Gates Jersey to taunt them a bit, but I think the Sex Cannon might have one of his games where people think “hmmm, he could still be good.” Pick: Da Bears +6

Durden: While the Bears will struggle on offense, the Chargers shouldn't have a problem setting up the pass by establishing the run early. San Diego simply has too many studs on both sides of the ball and Grossman obviously won't be able to save them as Benson struggles in his debut as the focus of their run game. Pick: Chargers -6

Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders (-2)
Mazzone: Roy Williams told me the Lions we’re “a good 3-13” last year and came close to scoring 40 pts several times despite what the scoreboard says. He also said “the score means nothing.” I disagree. Pick: Oakland -2


Durden: I feel good believing in Jon Kitna because he believes in God more than anyone not named Brenda Warner. Sure, the Raiders defense is good but Calvin's got a job now, and it's about to tear the Raiders apart. On a more unrelated note, I heard Lane Kiffin was in the hospital. Is he still old enough to qualify for Make a Wish? Pick: Lions +2

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Mazzone: I struggled picking this one. On one hand, I feel like Romo should have a field day with the Giants secondary. On the other hand, as long as Coughlin doesn’t force anyone else into retirement before kickoff I think the Giants should make a game of it as they usually do. Week one, divisional matchup…I’ll take the points in this one. Pick: Giants +6

Durden: I found it laughable when Tiki tried to address us all as a member of the media, but unfortunately for Eli, the G-Men won't be able to say they're fine without Tiki just yet. There are too many question marks for the Giants right now, and a healthy Burress is a must to beat the Cowboys. Carrie Underwood will be going home happy. Pick: Cowboys -6

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Mazzone: Last year, the teams split. The Ravens won the high scoring battle at home and the Bengals won the low scoring game in Cincy, go figure. Shayne Graham is banged up, which isn’t good considering the Ravens allowed less than 13 points a game last season. Nonetheless, “he’s just a kicker” and Durden is a Baltimore fan so that solves this toss-up. I’ll give the points and take the Bengals at home. Pick: Bengals -3

Durden: In spite of multiple injury concerns that don't seem to be getting much press for some reason, I'm taking the good guys on my birthday. If they can at least contain The Chad and get ANYTHING out of the offense, it'll be a good Dos-Cinco for me. Pick: Ravens +3

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Mazzone: Remember that time the trendy pick went on to surprisingly disappoint the experts? This year’s trendy pick is San Francisco (a year too early). Pick: Cardinals +3

Durden: Gotta give props to the 49ers for showing other teams how to take care of biz in the offseason. Whisenhunt was another good hire this offseason, but the Cardinals still aren't ready to make the leap and I'm sure the Offensive Line's Grimm predicament isn't quite what he had in mind. The 49ers will come out strong and make a statement on MNF, leaving Whisenpants frustrated with his leaking team. Pick: 49ers -3

Double Double: In this segment Durden and I will each pick a two team parlay – usually including the spread. Occasionally we may go Animal Style and pick a couple of underdogs to win outright. Durden likes the heavy favorites this week. And, though I like the ‘hawks too, I’d be ridiculed if I didn’t go with the Texans after hyping them up during the preseason.

Durden: Seahawks (-6), Chargers (-6)
Mazzone: Houston (-3), Vikings (-3)

Bet safely, and always believe in football